World:  226

Calif.   385

Earthquakes are getting big.  Last week I knew the quake in Mexico would trigger one in California or Chile. I didn’t record the blog and yesterday a 7.1 hit in Chile.  I am concerned because the quakes are happening with the numbers being above the hypothesis range.  I may need to tweak the numbers. 

I’ll be doing more detailed updates starting tomorrow.  It’s been hectic. 

Haven’t written in a while.  Just too busy but today’s numbers are concerning:

World: 194

Calif.: 342

Plus, there was a 3.6 by Petrolia and a 3.2 75 miles from Baja.  California needs to be on alert for the next 100 hours for a 5+.

World: 215

Calif: 408

Predictor Performance in last 24 hours:

  World Reality 

The world number will drop in the next 24 hours.  There has been no 6+ in the last day.

  California Reality

The Baja and Petrolia quakes did trigger the 4 in San Francisco, like I’ve been warning. Yesterday was a quiet day.

  

  World Forecast

The world number is 215 and will drop. We are back in threat range for the 6+. Watch areas near previous 5’s.  

  California Forecast 

California is in range for the bigger quake of a 5 but the Baja and Petrolia quake happened over a week ago and did spur on the 4+ in CA.  That might have been enough to reduce the stress … for now.  However, with the CA number low and the world number dropping back in low range and the fact that the two twin quakes of Baja and Petrolia happened just last week, means CA is still under threat for the 5+ and maybe a 6 in the next 72 hours.

World: 228

Calif: 404

Predictor Performance in last 24 hours:

  World Reality 

Over the weekend there was an exception to the rule. There was a 6+ and the world number was high. There was also a 6.1 in Argentina today. It is the first time in years that the quakes happened when the world number was high…. I will need to see how often this exception happens.

  

  California Reality

There was a 4.0 outside of San Fran an hour ago. Notice the CA number came down as well as the world number.  We had the 4+ last week in the two critical places, Baja and Petrolia.  I said that will increase  activity in CA and it did.  It took until the CA number dropped below 450 to happen.

  World Forecast

The world number is 228. We will see 5’s and smaller until the number decreases to the 210 range.

  California Forecast 

California is in range for a bigger quake. Please watch for a 5+, this includes the possibility of a 6+ in the next 72 hours. The chances are higher than typical because we’ve had the 4+ in the two key areas, Baja and Petrolia last week.  It  can happen within 250 miles of a previous 3+.

World: 264

Calif: 466

Predictor Performance in last 24 hours: HIGH

  World Reality 

The hypotheses is working. No big quakes around the world. The number is 264. Lot’s of 5’s but no sixes. 

  California Reality

California is above the 450 range.  There were no 5+ in the entire state.  This supports the hypothesis.    

  

  World Forecast 

The world number is 264. We will see 5’s and smaller until the number decreases to the 210 range.

  California Forecast 

California is above the 450 range.   I do not believe it will be a 6+ because the world number is high. I’ve tested this before and it held. 

Have a nice weekend.

World: 263

Calif: 462

Predictor Performance in last 24 hours: HIGH

  World Reality

Big news. I couldn’t believe how high the world number is growing. Typically, it is because of a 6+ quake. So, I went back to see if I missed any. On Saturday, a day I do not look at the quakes, there was a 6.7 in Russia. So, I checked to see the world number at the time of the quake. It was 212 or maybe 211. The animation on the USGS website works really fast and its hard to see it at the exact second the quake hits and the world number. I can’t freeze it. But, before the quake the world number was in the 205 – 210 range. Fascinating!!!!!!!!!!!

The hypotheses is working. No big quakes around the world. The number is 263. Lot’s of 5’s but no sixes. 

  California Reality

California is above the 450 range.  There were no 5+ in the entire state.  This supports the hypothesis.    

  World Forecast 

The world number is 263. We will see 5’s and smaller until the number decreases to the 210 range.

  California Forecast 

California is above the 450 range.  With the 4+ quakes happening in both Petrolia and Baja, there may be a 4+ in CA in the next 24 hours.  It  can happen within 250 miles of a previous 3. I do not believe it will be a 6+ because the world number is high. I’ve tested this before and it held.   

World: 255

Calif: 446

Predictor Performance in last 24 hours: HIGH

  World Reality 

The hypotheses is working. No big quakes around the world. The number is 255. Lot’s of 5’s but no sixes. 

  

  California Reality 

As quakecasted no 5+ in California in the last 24 hours. There was a 4.2 near Baja Mexico. This is a key spot to start a larger quake trend. There was also a 4.3 on Saturday by Petrolia, CA. I’ve talked of this before – how these two quakes occur near each other and then larger quakes may happen in CA. 

  World Forecast 

The world number is 255. We will see 5’s and smaller until the number decreases to the 210 range.

  California Forecast 

California is in the 450 range.  With the 4+ quakes happening in both Petrolia and Baja, there may be a 4+ in CA in the next 48 hours.  Since, I’ve been testing the CA number it may be a 5+. I am not sure if CA’s number is 425 or 450 as the upper limit for larger quakes.  We are right on the line. So, a 5+ quake can happen within 250 miles of a previous 3. I do not believe it will be a 6+ because the world number is high. I’ve tested this before and it held.  

World: 240

Calif: 434

Predictor Performance in last 24 hours: HIGH, it is amazing because I can quakecast when the big ones will hit and when they won’t. The hypothesis is working for both the world and CA!!!!!!!!!

No big quakes yesterday and the number were higher than 200 and 400.  Actually, the world number is pretty high.  We haven’t had a 6 since Feb. 14^th. Typically there is a 6 at least once a week, even twice. So, while the world number indicates there should be no 6+ in the next day, I wonder if the hypothesis needs to include a a factor for days between 6+. We will see.

  World Reality 

The hypotheses is working. We have enough smaller shakes to offset the large quake and the magic number seems to be holding at around 211.

  California Reality 

California is going crazy with lots of smaller shakes.  I am not sure if the key number for CA is 450 so there may be a 4+ but with the world number at 240, I do not think even a 5+ will hit CA in the next 24 hours.

  World Forecast 

The world number is 240. We will see 5 and smaller until the number decreases to the 210 range.

  California Forecast 

California is in the 430 – 450 range.   I am thinking the the magic CA number may be 425  which would put California  in the clear to avoid the larger quakes. I am still testing the range. Next 24 hours no large quake in the 6+ range. 

World: 206

Calif: 410

It’s amazing because I may have nailed the numbers. No big quakes yesterday and the number were higher than 200 and 400.  Now there is a range of 10% so for this weekend the chance of the 6+ is high.  Watch for areas near a previous 5.  I’ll be back from vacation next Tuesday.  Enjoy!

World: 200

Calif: 397

We are right at the cusp of maybe having a large quake. The key numbers are 200 – 210 for the world and 400 – 425 for CA. Let’s see if we get more smaller shakes. If not, the 6+ will be here. 

I am on vacation this week so my quakecasts are brief.

Note from David: Sorry for the weird postings of these, I am on vacation this week and also happen to be sick...

World: 214

Calif: 441 

Absolutely fascinating!!!  They hypothesis is working for both the world and California. There were NO 6+’s yesterday. Notice the two key numbers, both above range.

I am on vacation this week, but will keep checking.  I also have been graphing the results.  It’s fascinating to see the historically data and when the quakes hit. 

Note from David: Sorry this is one day late... I was travelling yesterday with no access to internet.

World: 211

Calif: 445 

Predictor Performance in last 24 hours: HIGH, it is amazing because I can quakecast when the big ones will hit and when they won’t. The hypothesis is working for both the world and CA!!!!!!!!!

  World Reality 

World number stayed above 200 during the weekend. No big quake. This is amazing. The hypotheses is working. We have enough smaller shakes to offset the large quake and the magic number seems to be holding at around 211.

  California Reality 

California went crazy this weekend with lots of smaller shakes. It got up to 459 on Sunday. This is well above the 450 key number and there were NO large quakes. As I quakecasted on Friday, the smaller quakes will avoid the big one and it WORKED.

  

  World Forecast 

The world number is 211. Right on the border.  If it goes up we will avoid the 6+. If it goes down or stays where it is expect a 6+ in areas near a previous 5.

  California Forecast

California is in the 400 – 450 range.  If this continues we will avoid the larger quake. However, right now the world number is right on the line of the magic 211 number  and California is still under 450. So  there is a possibility of a larger quake. However, I am thinking the the magic CA number may be 425  which would put California  in the clear to avoid the larger quakes. I am still testing the range. Therefore, areas near previous 3’s need to be on alert for a 5+.

World: 198

Calif: 439 

Predictor Performance in last 24 hours: HIGH

  World Reality

World number dropped below 200. So far no 6 quake.

  California Reality 

California experienced a lot more shaking of the smaller quakes. The number grow significantly yesterday.  I quakecasted that we’d need to see lots of smaller quakes to avoid a bigger one and so far it is working. However, the numbers are still in range for a larger quake.  

  World Forecast

The world number is 198. Expect a 6+ in areas near a previous 5+ unless smaller shakes bring the world number above 210. The chance of a 6 this weekend is high.

I am still concerned about Mexico for the larger quake this weekend. I’d put the country on orange alert until the world number goes above 215.

  California Forecast

California is inching back up to 450 territory. If this continues we will avoid the larger quake. However, right now the world number is under 200 and California is still under 450. The magic CA number may be 400, and California is in the clear to avoid the larger quakes, but I am still testing the range. Therefore, areas near previous 3’s need to be on alert for a 5+. It may even be a 6+ if we see a 3+ in northern Mexico. 

World: 210

Calif: 406 

Predictor Performance in last 24 hours: HIGH

  World Reality 

The world number was high yesterday and we did not see another 6. Now it is coming down and depending on which direction it heads can mean a bigger quake today.

  California Reality

Well, the 3+ are here.  There was a 3.5 in the San Fransico Bay area. This is where I am concerned for the larger quake. This could be a pre-quake.  With the CA number above 400 we did not see any bigger quakes. But, I think the magic number for CA is 450. It is under test. So far the 400 number is holding up to predict the lack of larger quakes. Don’t hold on to it though. I think we could still see a larger quake up to 450.

Also, notice how the quakes are moving south. 

  World Forecast 

The world number is 210. This is a border line number.  If it drops we can see a 6+ in areas near a previous 5+.  Alert needs to be on an orange level. Naturally, this applies to the 5+ quake in CA.  

  California Forecast 

California is in 400 territory. This means the state is prone to larger quakes. Watch the San Andréus fault line for a larger quake. We had a 3.5 yesterday in the San Francisco area. If the CA number does not go about 450 we may see the 6+ in the next week. Hopefully, we see a lot more smaller shaking and avoid the larger quake. For the next 72 hours areas near previous 3+ need to be on alert for possible 5+.  This naturally includes the 6. California needs to be on alert for a possible 6+ in the next 6 days. If the world number jumps high it may be avoided. But, it doesn’t look that way.

World: 195 (at time of the 6.0 off the coast of Oregon)

Calif: currently 428 (it was lower at time of Oregon quake)

Predictor Performance in last 24 hours: HIGH

  World Reality

There was a 6.0 in Coos Bay, Oregon which is 276 miles from the 5+ earthquake yesterday in California. I said the world number was in range for a 6, and it hit. I also said California is shaking up. This is a precursor to the larger quake coming. Quakecast is correct for time, place and size.

5.6 in Northern California

As quakecasted, there has been a 4+ earthquake in Northern California. It was a 5.6 located 5mi (9km) from Weitchpec, CA.

World: 202

Calif: 393

Predictor Performance in last 24 hours:

  World Reality 

When the world number was up over 200 this weekend there were NO 6+’s. It’s been a while since the world number went up that high, so I haven’t been able to test the hypothesis. Guess what? It worked. Now, the world number is back in larger quake range.

Also, remember I said to watch near Panama.  Well there was a 5.8 in Costa Rica. This is less than 250 miles from Panama.

  California Reality 

The 4’s have come to California. It did happen as I said after a larger quake hit near Petrolia. California will have some bigger quakes this month…

  World Forecast 

The larger quakes are going to move up the Mexico coastline this week.  Watch for Santa Rossilina, Mexico.  Once we get one mid mexico, it will continue up towards California.

  California Forecast 

The 3+ hit Petrolia last Thursday and started the movement in California, I’ve been mentioning. It’s here.  There was a 4.3 near Sacramento. The key number to watch for Califoria is 400. Right now California’s number is under 400 so it is prime for a larger quake. It will most probably be in the 4+ range.  We may hit a 5+. I am waiting for a 4+ in the southern area and then we will see a larger one 6+ in the mid section. I am concerned about San Francisco. So, for the next 72 hours, watch for 3+ and a possible 4+ near anyplace a 3+ happened within 300 miles.

World Number: 222

California Number:399

Yeah! The world number finally went significantly above 211.  There should be no 6+ in the next 24 hours.  I’ll keep my eye posted on the number. It’s been a while that it’s been this high. 

World: 211

Calif: 403

All I want to say is there was on MSNBC website the article says:

A strong earthquake in the central Philippines killed at least 13 people Monday as it destroyed buildings and triggered landslides that buried dozens of houses, trapping residents. At least 29 people were missing. The 6.8-magnitude quake, in a narrow strait just off Negros Island, caused a landslide in Guihulngan, a city of about 180,000 people in Negros Oriental province. As many as 30 houses were buried and at least 29 people were missing, Mayor Ernesto Reyes said. "Their situation is bad because if you are covered by landslide for one hour, two hours, how can you breathe?" he said. "But we just hope for the best, that there are still survivors."

My weekend quakecast said if the world number is around 210 any area within 850 miles of a previous 5 needs to be on alert. This quake happened within 200 miles of a previous 5.

Enough said. My heart and prayers go out to the people of the Phillippines.

World: 218

Calif: 429

Predictor Performance in last 24 hours: High, because the hypothesis is working.

  World Reality

When the world number hovers around 206, I quakecasted yesterday there is a chance of a 6+ within 850 miles of a previous 5. Well there was a 7.1 in Efate, Vanuatu which is 192 miles from a previous 5! I am surprised by the size of the quake because the world number is higher than I expected for it to happen. But still, I bet the people there would have appreciated a warning.

  California Reality

As quakecasted the earthquakes maxed out in the 3 range. It is shaking a lot now. More than the last couple of months. Activity is picking up.

  World Quakecast

Weekend is here! I'll try to go 72 hours out but with the world number around 218, it could go higher reducing the chance of the large quake. Typically, the 6+ do not happen unless the world number is under 206. So, watch the world number if it is around 210 areas 850 miles from a previous 5 need to be on alert.

  California Quakecast

Until we see the 4+, quakes in CA will max out in the 3 range. The 4+ quake will be either in the Pacific in the mid section of the state or Petrolia or Baja. Those events will trigger the bigger quake. This quake cast is for 72 hours. I'll check to see progress tomorrow.

World: 213

Calif: 436

Predictor Performance in last 24 hours: High, because the hypothesis is working.

  World Reality

There were no 6+ quakes. There was a 4.6 in San Salvador, El Salvador which is about 650 miles from Panama. The quakes are closing in on the region.

  California Reality

There was a 3.5 in Wells, NV. The quakes are moving west even faster than I thought. There were also a couple of 3+. The size of the quakes in CA are growing. I said the quakes in CA would max out in the 3 range.

  World Quakecast

The world number is increasing the further it gets from 203 the likelihood of a 6+ decreases. Today, it can go in either direction. So, areas near previous 5's still need to be on alert.

  California Quakecast

Watch the midline. The quakes are starting to move west. It hit Nevada early today and will continue moving west. Until we see the 4+, quakes in CA will max out in the 3 range. The 4+ quake will be either in the Pacific in the mid section of the state or Petrolia or Baja. Those events will trigger the bigger quake. This quake cast is for 24 hours. I'll check to see progress tomorrow.

World: 191

Calif: 440

Predictor Performance in last 24 hours: High, I knew there would be no major activity.

  World Reality

World number is hanging around the 200 mark as predicted. There were no 6+ quakes.

  California Reality

Quakecast correct for knowing there would be no large quakes in CA the previous day. The point here is that there can be a warning system. People should always be on their guard, but there are times the probability of a larger quake exists. Yesterday was not one of them.

  World Quakecast

There was a 3.2 in Manitoba, Canada. It is way north of the US midline I keep talking about but it is west of yesterday's 3.2 in Virginia. These quakes may be tied together and I quakecast additional activity on the US midline in the next 100 hours.

World number will hang around below 200 in the next 24 hours until a 6+ happens within 100 hours. Area's near previous 5's need to be on alert for the 6+.

Area's of particular concern:

• Panama
• Taiwan

  California Quakecast

Watch the midline. The 3.2 in Virginia will start to move west. It hit very north in Canada yesterday but will continue moving west. Until we see the 4+, quakes in CA will max out in the 3 range. The 4+ quake will be either in the Pacific in the mid section of the state or Petrolia or Baja. Those events will trigger the bigger quake. This quake cast is for 24 hours. I'll check to see progress tomorrow.

World: 200

Calif: 438

Predictor Performance in last 24 hours: Medium -- But it is working!!!! Scary how you can quakecast!

  World Reality

There was a 6.3 in Ica, Peru. I said we needed to watch Santa Rossalia, Mexico or Peru because I was not sure if the quakes would move north or south. Well, I was right about it hitting one of those two locations. It happened 48 hours after my 72 hour prediction. The point is maybe instead of quakecasting 72 hours in advance I should make 100 hour quakecasts. I knew it would hit. So, I got place, size and was just 48 hours too late. I still think the people of Peru would have appreciated a warning that it might come.

  California Reality

There was a 3.2 by the Geyers. All others 2's. I quakecasted no big ones for CA over the weekend and got it right.

  World Quakecast

The world number will go down again in the next 24 hours making the probability of another 6+ higher. Watch for areas near previous 5's.

Area's of particular concern:

• Panama

  California Quakecast

California is shaking more. This can be a good thing because it reduces stress. In the next 24 hours the largest quake will be in the 3's. I'll be watching Petrolia and Baja for a possible 4. Once that happens we will see the size of the CA quakes increase.

World: 184

Calif: 392

Predictor Performance in last 24 hours:

  World Reality

The 6+ did not happen in the 72 hours. I may be off a couple of hours. Today will be very interesting.

  California Reality

A couple of 3's but mostly twos.

  World Quakecast

There will be a 6+ in the next 48 hours..... any area with a 5+ in the last week needs to be on alert for a 6+ if it is within 850 miles of a previous 5+ quake.

I'd watch these areas for the bigger quake:

• Santa Rossalia, Mexico or Peru. I am not sure it will move north or south
• Indonesia

  California Quakecast

This is tricky. Let's watch for a 4+ by Baja or Petrolia. This weekend the largest quake will not exceed 4.5 in California. There will be a few more threes.

World: 173

Calif: 392

Predictor Performance in last 24 hours:

  World Reality

The world number did not inch back up. I have 24 hours left for the 6+ to happen. Keep your eyes open in areas 850 miles from a previous 5. If this happens, I will have been able to quakecast a major quake 72 hours in advance.

  California Reality

There were no 4's yesterday. There were not even any 3's. Just two's. I quakecasted a low magnitude day and got it.

  World Forecast

There will be a 6+ in the next 48 hours if the world number does not continue to inch back up. Hopefully, we see lots more 5's. But if we don't .... any area with a 5+ in the last week needs to be on alert for a 6+ if it is within 850 miles of a previous 5+ quake.

I'd watch these areas for the bigger quake:

• Santa Rossalia, Mexico or Peru. I am not sure it will move north or south

World: 186

Calif: 373

Predictor Performance in last 24 hours:

  World Reality

The world moved quickly back up yesterday with only 5's but lots of them. There was tremendous activity in Alaska. The quakecast predicted a 6+ in 72 hours so hold on. I still have 48 hours to go.

  California Reality

There were no 4's yesterday. There were not even any 3's. Just two's. I quakecasted a low magnitude day and got it.

  World Forecast

There will be a 6+ in the next 48 hours if the world number does not continue to inch back up. Hopefully, we see lots more 5's. But if we don't .... any area with a 5+ in the last week needs to be on alert for a 6+ if it is within 850 miles of a previous 5+ quake.

I'd watch these areas for the bigger quake:

• Santa Rossalia, Mexico or Peru. I am not sure it will move north or south

  California Forecast

California is tough. I'd watch for a possible 4+ in Petrolia, Baja or Riverside. In the next 24 hours quakes will be less than a 4. However, with CA number under 400, the chance of the 4+ quake is higher.

Big news: Quakecast is trademarked. I've been away awhile but I am back quakecasting. It is a new term!

World: 166

Calif: 378

Predictor Performance in last 24 hours:

  World Reality

I've been gone for a while but the hypothesis still holds. The world number is lower than 206 and there was a 6.3 in Figi. This quake was within the 850 miles of a previous 5 quake earlier in the week. I am graphing the quakes to support the data.

  California Reality

California has been hit with 4's in both critical areas - Petrolia and Baja! We are seeing increased activity in terms of size. There was a 3.8 in Clearlake Oaks, CA.

  World Forecast

The world number dropped again. There will be a 6+ in the next 72 hours. I also think it can be as high as a 7+. Again, any area with a 5+ in the last week needs to be on alert if it is within 850 miles of the 5+ quake.

I'd watch these areas for the bigger quake:

• Santa Rossalia, Mexico or Peru. I am not sure it will move north or south
• I've been gone too long to figure out area's near Asia, Australia

  California Forecast

In the next 24 hours watch for a possible 4 in Riverside. Otherwise 2's and 3's.

Note from David: I am sorry this is so late, the past few days have been so hectic that I missed the email. Sorry! Original date: 17 January, 2012.

World: 196

Calif: 414

Predictor Performance in last 24 hours:

  World Reality

There was a 5.7 in Samar, Philippines. This is 410 miles from Luzon, Philippines. Where I've been saying to watch out! This is significant because the quakes seem to move slower than I thought. They tend to go on a line and hit points in-between. Like yesterday, the 5+ quake was in Celebes, Indonesia which is over 1000 miles from Luzon. I just needed to be more patient with the time and quakecast a little closer to where the first quake hit. This means that whenever a 5+ hits areas within a 1000 miles need to be aware the quakes can move in their direction.

  California Reality

Well it was nice and quiet but a 4.3 hit 31 miles from Petrolia, California. For those of you reading the blog you know that is a precursor to more and larger activity in California. The rest of the state was calm just as quakecasted.

  World Forecast

The world number is under 206. This means everyone near a previous 5 must be on alert for a 6+. I'd especially watch these areas:

• MYANMAR region by India
• Puerto Aisen, South America

  California Forecast

The 4+ has arrived in Petrolia, California. This will spread larger quakes. Sometimes it is a precursor to a 7 in the same area. I am not sure of timing. It can take days if not weeks. This is very tricky because the CA number is inching up over 400 but not much. Typically, there is a 5+ quake maybe even a 6+ that drives the number into the 500's and happens when the CA is low. Just like it is now. The timing in right. Watch the Maacama fault zone.

Happy Martin Luther King Jr. Day!

Happy Martin Luther King Jr. day to the US. Technically, I am off today but here is a shortened quakecast.

World: 199

Calif: 409

Predictor Performance in last 24 hours: 

  World Reality

There were two 6's in the same spot over the weekend. However, when I went back on Monday to check only one was there. I think the other was downgraded. I am not sure. Anyway it happened in the South Shetland Islands. This is way near Antartica. The other mystery quake was a 6.6 in the region was a 6.6. This is about 1 000 miles from a previous 5. It could be closer because the quakes location are given as a region. I did not look up the longitude / latitude distance.

I also said to watch these regions:

• Peshawar - There was a 5.0 in Chitral, Pakistan this is from Peshawar 127 miles from where I said it would hit. Quakecast correct for time, place and size.
• Sinaloa, Mexico - There was a 4.6 in Oaxaca, Mexico this is just out of range of the 850 miles.
• Luzon, Philippines - There was a 5.3 in Celebes, Indonesia 1 000 miles away. It looks a lot closer on the USGS map

  California Reality

Nice and quiet weekend as quakecasted.

  World Forecast

The world number is under 206. This means everyone near a previous 5 must be on alert for a 6+.

  California Forecast

Next 24 hours, no quakes bigger than a 3.7.

World: 210

Calif: 414

Predictor Performance in last 24 hours: Medium.

  World Reality

As quakecasted the world number went up in the previous 24 hours. We are still in the red zone for 6's but the likelihood drops as the world number increases beyond 206. There were many 5's driving up the number.

I thought the 5's would happen in the following areas:

• Luzon, Philippines - There was a 5.0 in Mindanao, Philippines which is 575 miles from Luzon. This quake happened in the 72 hours time frame of the prediction. Quakecast correct for size, place and timing.
• Chile - There was a 5.2 in the ocean off the coast of Chili! It was pretty far out, but still on the same latitude line.
• Kashmir - There was a 5.1 1200 miles away in Iran. This is a miss.
• Sinaloa, Mexico There was a 4.7 in Oaxaca, Mexico 800 miles away. This is within the 850 mile range for world predictions. They are coming up the coast. Watch out California.

  California Reality

As quakecasted no 6+. There also were no 4+. Only 2's. I quakecasted no significant activity and was correct. This is important because we can tell when people need to have their guard up.

  World Forecast

We are finally getting bigger than the 206. There will be lots more 5's and a possible 6+ if the 5's do not ramp up quickly in the next 48 hours.

Naturally, any area near a 5 is of higher risk for the 6+. Especially look for the chance for the 6's within 250 miles of the 7. I've also highlighted these areas in the next 72 hours to watch:

• Peshawar
• Sinaloa, Mexico
• Luzon, Philippines

  California Forecast

I am going to stick with a 24 quakecast for California - No 5+ in the next 24 hours. I also highly doubt there will be a 4+. Lot's more 2's and possible 3's.

World: 206

Calif: 402

Predictor Performance in last 24 hours: High because hypothesis held true.

  World Reality

There was a a 7.3 in Sumatra, Indonesia. At the time of the quake the world number was 196. The hypothesis states that when the world number is lower than 206 the chance of a 6+ occurs anywhere a previous 5 happened the week before. Last Thursday there was a 5.1 in the same area! Why is this important? Because I believe we can establish a warning system. Next time Indonesia could be aware of a 6+, which includes a 7, is a higher probability. This is important because when the numbers are not aligned, they do not have to live in fear of a large quake.

Also, I am graphing the data and seeing when the 7's happen. I've been surprised how long this run of the world number has been lower than a 206. I will be testing the hypothesis, if the multiple 6's occur and the world number does not go up above 206, the likelihood of a 7 is greater. This hypothesis is copyrighted. Stay tuned to see what we discover together.

Yesterday, I stated areas of particular concern were:

• Luzon, Philippines - I was wrong it was west. I was looking in the area but missed. I have to include maps with a radius of where I think they will happen.
• Chile - I gave 72 hours for watching. We will see.
• Kashmir - I gave 72 hours for watching. We will see.
• Sinaloa, Mexico Well they are coming up the coast. There was a 5.0 in Ecuador. I said Mexico is 4 days out.

  California Reality

Predicted correctly that there was no 7's or 6's in the 24 hours period. I quakecasted the highest quake for California would be a will be a 3.5. There was a 3.4 in Petrolia, CA. That was the biggest one for the day! I knew there would be a 3+.

  World Forecast

The world number will go up in the next 24 hours. I am not going to quakecast beyond the 24 hour period because it is unusual for a 7. I want to see what happens. I suspect lots more 5's even a possible 6 in the region of the 7.

  California Forecast

California's number is up over 400. There will not be a 6+ in the next 24 hours. But, I am seeing more activity and larger 3+ quakes. Possible 4's in areas where a 2 happened within the previous week. Range to watch out for where the two occurred can be up to 250 miles out.

World: 188

Calif: 397

Predictor Performance in last 24 hours: Medium. I was too ambitious

with location on one prediction.

  World Reality

The 5 aftershocks happened but not enough to drive the world number up.

I predicted 5's for aftershocks in:

• Luzon, Philippines - In the first 24 hours the 5 happened in Papua, Indonesia, 2,000 miles away. Wait another 48 hours. I should have quakecast further south in 24 hours.
• North of Santiago, South America for aftershocks- There was a 5.1 in Valparaiso, Chile. This is 67 miles from Santiago. Quakecast score for place, time and magnitude!
• Mexico will also get a 4+ and maybe a 5. - There was a 4.1 in Chiapas, Mexico! Quakecast score for place, time and magnitude!

  California Reality

As predicted there were no 7's or 6's in the previous 24 hours. My concern for Bakersfield is on target. While there were no 3's or 4's in California, there were more 2's in the first 24 hour period. Several by Coso Junction, CA. This is 75 miles from Bakersfield where I am concerned the 3 or 4 will happen in the next 48 hours. It is getting active in that region.

  World Forecast

This is a 72 hour quakecast. Watch for the 5 and possible 6 by any area that experience a 5 in the last week. The world number remains low. Areas of particular concern include but are not limited to:

• Luzon, Philippines
• Chile
• Kashmir
• Sinaloa, Mexico ( This may be 4 days out. I have to watch South America to see if they come up the coast)

  California Forecast

No 7's or 6's in the next 24 hours. Lot's more two's. The highest quake for California in the next 24 hours will be a 3.5.

World: 196

Calif: 382

Predictor Performance in last 24 hours: High.

  World Reality

As predicted there was a 6.6 in the Santa Cruz Islands, by the Solomon Islands. I said there was an increased risk of a 6+ near a previous 5 over the weekend! The world number is less than 206 and the 6.6 occurred 485 miles from a previous 5 the day before! They hypothesis holds true... again!

This prediction holds for time, size and place.

  California Reality

As predicted there were no 7's this weekend in California. I predicted a 3+ near the Tejon Pass. There was a 3.5, 174 miles away in Coachella, CA. This is in the 250 mile radius for accuracy in California.

  World Forecast

Hopefully, the 6.6 will drive a lot of 5 aftershocks to the world number over 206. I don't think I've ever seen the world number stay so low for so long. The risk of a 6 is still high. Watch out Luzon, Philippines. There will be 5 aftershocks and maybe the 6. Also watch north of Santiago, South America for aftershocks. Mexico will also get a 4+ and maybe a 5. I do not think the 6 will be there, but with the number so low it might.

  California Forecast

No 7's or 6's in the next 24 hours. Watch Bakersfield for a 3+ and maybe a 4. We are seeing more 3's and this increases the risk of more three and 4's. If they happen, they will occur within 150 miles of a previous 2.

World: 194

Calif: 390

Predictor Performance in last 24 hours: High for the world. Medium for

CA.

  World Reality

• Predicted a 5+ north of Chile and there was a 5.0 88 miles north of Chile.
• Predicted a 4+ in Mexico and there was a 4.3 in Baja Calif. Sur, Mexico
• Predicted a 4+ in China there was a 4.3 in Myitkyina, Myanmar India. But this is only 97 miles from China! I need to put maps on the website. Because country borders are not a good description.

Overall, I got time, size and place for all three areas!

  California Reality

As predicted there was not a 7 in the 24 hours. There were more threes. Like one in Santa Barbara. This is 54 miles from where I said to watch for the possible 4. I still have 24 hours for the 4. But, this quakecast is correct for place and time. I missed size.

  World Forecast

The world number is going up from aftershocks. It is still in the dangerous position of lower than 206. Therefore anyplace that has had a five in the last week may have the 6+ over the weekend.

  California Forecast

Watch the Tejon Pass for a 3+ quake. Maybe a 4 over the weekend. No 7's this weekend.

World: 167

Calif: 370

Predictor Performance in last 24 hours: Poor - I am rusty!

  World Reality

As predicted the world number will dropped in the next 24 hours from 183 to 167. This is significant because when the number drops below 200 the chance of a 6+ increases. There really weren't any larger quakes yesterday. The good news is several 4 size aftershocks but none by Indonesia.

  California Reality

I was wrong. There was a 4.1 in the Channel Islands off the coast of California. Technically, it is not California but still it is in the area.

  World Forecast

There will be a 5+ north of Chile in the next 72 hours. There will be a 4+ in Mexico in the next 72 hours. There will be a 4+ in China in the next 72 hours. Please note with the world number low, the chance of the earthquake being a 6+ is greater than usual.

  California Forecast

Watch the Tejon pass area for a possible 4 in the next 72 hours. The threes are increasing and there have been a couple of fours. With the California number below 400 we have a higher chance for a 4+. There will not be a 7 in California in the next 24 hours.

Happy New Year

This will be an exciting year for quakecast followers. First, the name is in process of being trademarked. I'll keep you posted if the US Government approves the request. Second, I hope to add other features to the blog including maps of high warning areas.

In the meantime, I'll be watching and quakecasting around the globe and especially California.

World: 183

Calif: 338

Predictor Performance in last 24 hours: None -- I was on vacation

  World Reality

The world number never went up over 200 on my entire vacation. This is very unusual. I think I need to track the world number. I know it is typically over 200. With the world number low, there was a 6.8 quake in Japan. It got no news in the US. Also, last week there were 6 earthquakes in the middle east. Remember, I said we'd see activity start up there. No 6's but still it went from very quiet to slightly active.

  California Reality

There was a three in the Geyers, CA. and lots of twos.

  World Forecast

I have to get readjusted. It's been two weeks so please consider that I may be rusted with this quakecast. The world number will drop in the next 24 hours. There has been very few aftershocks since yesterday. I am not sure when the quakes happened, because I was away but it should go down. This increases the risk of a 6 or a 7. Based on location of the 6.8 and other 5+ breakouts, I'd watch Indonesia for a larger quake.

  California Forecast

I am only going to make a 24 hour quakecast because I've been out of it for a while. There will be no 4+ in the next 24 hours. There will be more 2's and a three. Watch the San Francisco area for the 3+.