Quakecast

04 January, 2012

World: 167

Calif: 370

Predictor Performance in last 24 hours: Poor - I am rusty!

World Reality

As predicted the world number will dropped in the next 24 hours from 183 to 167. This is significant because when the number drops below 200 the chance of a 6+ increases. There really weren't any larger quakes yesterday. The good news is several 4 size aftershocks but none by Indonesia.

California Reality

I was wrong. There was a 4.1 in the Channel Islands off the coast of California. Technically, it is not California but still it is in the area.

World Forecast

There will be a 5+ north of Chile in the next 72 hours. There will be a 4+ in Mexico in the next 72 hours. There will be a 4+ in China in the next 72 hours. Please note with the world number low, the chance of the earthquake being a 6+ is greater than usual.

California Forecast

Watch the Tejon pass area for a possible 4 in the next 72 hours. The threes are increasing and there have been a couple of fours. With the California number below 400 we have a higher chance for a 4+. There will not be a 7 in California in the next 24 hours.

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About this blog / Disclaimer

This blog follows the predictions of earthquakes in California and around the world from my god-mother, Randi.

Randi has never taken a geology class. She has no formal training. But, everyday for the last six years she has observed earthquakes around the world. She has watched when they happen and where they happen. She believes that there are patterns to when large earthquakes occur. She uses these patterns to predict future quakes.

She uses only one source of information for her predictions: USGS.

Randi makes her predictions based on the data from the USGS website and her insight gained from observing world-wide earthquake activity. As a challenge, she tries to make predictions in 72 hour increments. Just like a weather forecast, she misses many times, as well as gets some earthquake forecasts correct.

Randi's main concern is California. She will discuss earthquake activity on the world level, but she will do her best to narrow down the activity to specific dates for California.

This blog is for fun. It is NOT scientific. Randi does not recommend anyone to take any specific action because of her predictions.

A note from Randi on how she predicts them:

I’ve kept my analysis real simple. Today there are 344 in California/Nevada, a low number but the world number is 270. To me that means California WILL NOT have a large earthquake today. If the number goes below 200 for the world and California/Nevada is less than 500 then I believe the BIG quake will occur there.

Earlier this week, I got nervous because the world number was 218 and California was below 500, but another quake happened elsewhere before the total number went below 200 and the aftershocks raised the total world number to 270. It is fascinating to watch because the big quakes happen when the world goes below 200...