World: 200

Calif: 438

Predictor Performance in last 24 hours: Medium -- But it is working!!!! Scary how you can quakecast!

  World Reality

There was a 6.3 in Ica, Peru. I said we needed to watch Santa Rossalia, Mexico or Peru because I was not sure if the quakes would move north or south. Well, I was right about it hitting one of those two locations. It happened 48 hours after my 72 hour prediction. The point is maybe instead of quakecasting 72 hours in advance I should make 100 hour quakecasts. I knew it would hit. So, I got place, size and was just 48 hours too late. I still think the people of Peru would have appreciated a warning that it might come.

  California Reality

There was a 3.2 by the Geyers. All others 2's. I quakecasted no big ones for CA over the weekend and got it right.

  World Quakecast

The world number will go down again in the next 24 hours making the probability of another 6+ higher. Watch for areas near previous 5's.

Area's of particular concern:

• Panama

  California Quakecast

California is shaking more. This can be a good thing because it reduces stress. In the next 24 hours the largest quake will be in the 3's. I'll be watching Petrolia and Baja for a possible 4. Once that happens we will see the size of the CA quakes increase.

World: 184

Calif: 392

Predictor Performance in last 24 hours:

  World Reality

The 6+ did not happen in the 72 hours. I may be off a couple of hours. Today will be very interesting.

  California Reality

A couple of 3's but mostly twos.

  World Quakecast

There will be a 6+ in the next 48 hours..... any area with a 5+ in the last week needs to be on alert for a 6+ if it is within 850 miles of a previous 5+ quake.

I'd watch these areas for the bigger quake:

• Santa Rossalia, Mexico or Peru. I am not sure it will move north or south
• Indonesia

  California Quakecast

This is tricky. Let's watch for a 4+ by Baja or Petrolia. This weekend the largest quake will not exceed 4.5 in California. There will be a few more threes.

World: 173

Calif: 392

Predictor Performance in last 24 hours:

  World Reality

The world number did not inch back up. I have 24 hours left for the 6+ to happen. Keep your eyes open in areas 850 miles from a previous 5. If this happens, I will have been able to quakecast a major quake 72 hours in advance.

  California Reality

There were no 4's yesterday. There were not even any 3's. Just two's. I quakecasted a low magnitude day and got it.

  World Forecast

There will be a 6+ in the next 48 hours if the world number does not continue to inch back up. Hopefully, we see lots more 5's. But if we don't .... any area with a 5+ in the last week needs to be on alert for a 6+ if it is within 850 miles of a previous 5+ quake.

I'd watch these areas for the bigger quake:

• Santa Rossalia, Mexico or Peru. I am not sure it will move north or south

World: 186

Calif: 373

Predictor Performance in last 24 hours:

  World Reality

The world moved quickly back up yesterday with only 5's but lots of them. There was tremendous activity in Alaska. The quakecast predicted a 6+ in 72 hours so hold on. I still have 48 hours to go.

  California Reality

There were no 4's yesterday. There were not even any 3's. Just two's. I quakecasted a low magnitude day and got it.

  World Forecast

There will be a 6+ in the next 48 hours if the world number does not continue to inch back up. Hopefully, we see lots more 5's. But if we don't .... any area with a 5+ in the last week needs to be on alert for a 6+ if it is within 850 miles of a previous 5+ quake.

I'd watch these areas for the bigger quake:

• Santa Rossalia, Mexico or Peru. I am not sure it will move north or south

  California Forecast

California is tough. I'd watch for a possible 4+ in Petrolia, Baja or Riverside. In the next 24 hours quakes will be less than a 4. However, with CA number under 400, the chance of the 4+ quake is higher.

Big news: Quakecast is trademarked. I've been away awhile but I am back quakecasting. It is a new term!

World: 166

Calif: 378

Predictor Performance in last 24 hours:

  World Reality

I've been gone for a while but the hypothesis still holds. The world number is lower than 206 and there was a 6.3 in Figi. This quake was within the 850 miles of a previous 5 quake earlier in the week. I am graphing the quakes to support the data.

  California Reality

California has been hit with 4's in both critical areas - Petrolia and Baja! We are seeing increased activity in terms of size. There was a 3.8 in Clearlake Oaks, CA.

  World Forecast

The world number dropped again. There will be a 6+ in the next 72 hours. I also think it can be as high as a 7+. Again, any area with a 5+ in the last week needs to be on alert if it is within 850 miles of the 5+ quake.

I'd watch these areas for the bigger quake:

• Santa Rossalia, Mexico or Peru. I am not sure it will move north or south
• I've been gone too long to figure out area's near Asia, Australia

  California Forecast

In the next 24 hours watch for a possible 4 in Riverside. Otherwise 2's and 3's.

Note from David: I am sorry this is so late, the past few days have been so hectic that I missed the email. Sorry! Original date: 17 January, 2012.

World: 196

Calif: 414

Predictor Performance in last 24 hours:

  World Reality

There was a 5.7 in Samar, Philippines. This is 410 miles from Luzon, Philippines. Where I've been saying to watch out! This is significant because the quakes seem to move slower than I thought. They tend to go on a line and hit points in-between. Like yesterday, the 5+ quake was in Celebes, Indonesia which is over 1000 miles from Luzon. I just needed to be more patient with the time and quakecast a little closer to where the first quake hit. This means that whenever a 5+ hits areas within a 1000 miles need to be aware the quakes can move in their direction.

  California Reality

Well it was nice and quiet but a 4.3 hit 31 miles from Petrolia, California. For those of you reading the blog you know that is a precursor to more and larger activity in California. The rest of the state was calm just as quakecasted.

  World Forecast

The world number is under 206. This means everyone near a previous 5 must be on alert for a 6+. I'd especially watch these areas:

• MYANMAR region by India
• Puerto Aisen, South America

  California Forecast

The 4+ has arrived in Petrolia, California. This will spread larger quakes. Sometimes it is a precursor to a 7 in the same area. I am not sure of timing. It can take days if not weeks. This is very tricky because the CA number is inching up over 400 but not much. Typically, there is a 5+ quake maybe even a 6+ that drives the number into the 500's and happens when the CA is low. Just like it is now. The timing in right. Watch the Maacama fault zone.

Happy Martin Luther King Jr. Day!

Happy Martin Luther King Jr. day to the US. Technically, I am off today but here is a shortened quakecast.

World: 199

Calif: 409

Predictor Performance in last 24 hours: 

  World Reality

There were two 6's in the same spot over the weekend. However, when I went back on Monday to check only one was there. I think the other was downgraded. I am not sure. Anyway it happened in the South Shetland Islands. This is way near Antartica. The other mystery quake was a 6.6 in the region was a 6.6. This is about 1 000 miles from a previous 5. It could be closer because the quakes location are given as a region. I did not look up the longitude / latitude distance.

I also said to watch these regions:

• Peshawar - There was a 5.0 in Chitral, Pakistan this is from Peshawar 127 miles from where I said it would hit. Quakecast correct for time, place and size.
• Sinaloa, Mexico - There was a 4.6 in Oaxaca, Mexico this is just out of range of the 850 miles.
• Luzon, Philippines - There was a 5.3 in Celebes, Indonesia 1 000 miles away. It looks a lot closer on the USGS map

  California Reality

Nice and quiet weekend as quakecasted.

  World Forecast

The world number is under 206. This means everyone near a previous 5 must be on alert for a 6+.

  California Forecast

Next 24 hours, no quakes bigger than a 3.7.

World: 210

Calif: 414

Predictor Performance in last 24 hours: Medium.

  World Reality

As quakecasted the world number went up in the previous 24 hours. We are still in the red zone for 6's but the likelihood drops as the world number increases beyond 206. There were many 5's driving up the number.

I thought the 5's would happen in the following areas:

• Luzon, Philippines - There was a 5.0 in Mindanao, Philippines which is 575 miles from Luzon. This quake happened in the 72 hours time frame of the prediction. Quakecast correct for size, place and timing.
• Chile - There was a 5.2 in the ocean off the coast of Chili! It was pretty far out, but still on the same latitude line.
• Kashmir - There was a 5.1 1200 miles away in Iran. This is a miss.
• Sinaloa, Mexico There was a 4.7 in Oaxaca, Mexico 800 miles away. This is within the 850 mile range for world predictions. They are coming up the coast. Watch out California.

  California Reality

As quakecasted no 6+. There also were no 4+. Only 2's. I quakecasted no significant activity and was correct. This is important because we can tell when people need to have their guard up.

  World Forecast

We are finally getting bigger than the 206. There will be lots more 5's and a possible 6+ if the 5's do not ramp up quickly in the next 48 hours.

Naturally, any area near a 5 is of higher risk for the 6+. Especially look for the chance for the 6's within 250 miles of the 7. I've also highlighted these areas in the next 72 hours to watch:

• Peshawar
• Sinaloa, Mexico
• Luzon, Philippines

  California Forecast

I am going to stick with a 24 quakecast for California - No 5+ in the next 24 hours. I also highly doubt there will be a 4+. Lot's more 2's and possible 3's.

World: 206

Calif: 402

Predictor Performance in last 24 hours: High because hypothesis held true.

  World Reality

There was a a 7.3 in Sumatra, Indonesia. At the time of the quake the world number was 196. The hypothesis states that when the world number is lower than 206 the chance of a 6+ occurs anywhere a previous 5 happened the week before. Last Thursday there was a 5.1 in the same area! Why is this important? Because I believe we can establish a warning system. Next time Indonesia could be aware of a 6+, which includes a 7, is a higher probability. This is important because when the numbers are not aligned, they do not have to live in fear of a large quake.

Also, I am graphing the data and seeing when the 7's happen. I've been surprised how long this run of the world number has been lower than a 206. I will be testing the hypothesis, if the multiple 6's occur and the world number does not go up above 206, the likelihood of a 7 is greater. This hypothesis is copyrighted. Stay tuned to see what we discover together.

Yesterday, I stated areas of particular concern were:

• Luzon, Philippines - I was wrong it was west. I was looking in the area but missed. I have to include maps with a radius of where I think they will happen.
• Chile - I gave 72 hours for watching. We will see.
• Kashmir - I gave 72 hours for watching. We will see.
• Sinaloa, Mexico Well they are coming up the coast. There was a 5.0 in Ecuador. I said Mexico is 4 days out.

  California Reality

Predicted correctly that there was no 7's or 6's in the 24 hours period. I quakecasted the highest quake for California would be a will be a 3.5. There was a 3.4 in Petrolia, CA. That was the biggest one for the day! I knew there would be a 3+.

  World Forecast

The world number will go up in the next 24 hours. I am not going to quakecast beyond the 24 hour period because it is unusual for a 7. I want to see what happens. I suspect lots more 5's even a possible 6 in the region of the 7.

  California Forecast

California's number is up over 400. There will not be a 6+ in the next 24 hours. But, I am seeing more activity and larger 3+ quakes. Possible 4's in areas where a 2 happened within the previous week. Range to watch out for where the two occurred can be up to 250 miles out.

World: 188

Calif: 397

Predictor Performance in last 24 hours: Medium. I was too ambitious

with location on one prediction.

  World Reality

The 5 aftershocks happened but not enough to drive the world number up.

I predicted 5's for aftershocks in:

• Luzon, Philippines - In the first 24 hours the 5 happened in Papua, Indonesia, 2,000 miles away. Wait another 48 hours. I should have quakecast further south in 24 hours.
• North of Santiago, South America for aftershocks- There was a 5.1 in Valparaiso, Chile. This is 67 miles from Santiago. Quakecast score for place, time and magnitude!
• Mexico will also get a 4+ and maybe a 5. - There was a 4.1 in Chiapas, Mexico! Quakecast score for place, time and magnitude!

  California Reality

As predicted there were no 7's or 6's in the previous 24 hours. My concern for Bakersfield is on target. While there were no 3's or 4's in California, there were more 2's in the first 24 hour period. Several by Coso Junction, CA. This is 75 miles from Bakersfield where I am concerned the 3 or 4 will happen in the next 48 hours. It is getting active in that region.

  World Forecast

This is a 72 hour quakecast. Watch for the 5 and possible 6 by any area that experience a 5 in the last week. The world number remains low. Areas of particular concern include but are not limited to:

• Luzon, Philippines
• Chile
• Kashmir
• Sinaloa, Mexico ( This may be 4 days out. I have to watch South America to see if they come up the coast)

  California Forecast

No 7's or 6's in the next 24 hours. Lot's more two's. The highest quake for California in the next 24 hours will be a 3.5.

World: 196

Calif: 382

Predictor Performance in last 24 hours: High.

  World Reality

As predicted there was a 6.6 in the Santa Cruz Islands, by the Solomon Islands. I said there was an increased risk of a 6+ near a previous 5 over the weekend! The world number is less than 206 and the 6.6 occurred 485 miles from a previous 5 the day before! They hypothesis holds true... again!

This prediction holds for time, size and place.

  California Reality

As predicted there were no 7's this weekend in California. I predicted a 3+ near the Tejon Pass. There was a 3.5, 174 miles away in Coachella, CA. This is in the 250 mile radius for accuracy in California.

  World Forecast

Hopefully, the 6.6 will drive a lot of 5 aftershocks to the world number over 206. I don't think I've ever seen the world number stay so low for so long. The risk of a 6 is still high. Watch out Luzon, Philippines. There will be 5 aftershocks and maybe the 6. Also watch north of Santiago, South America for aftershocks. Mexico will also get a 4+ and maybe a 5. I do not think the 6 will be there, but with the number so low it might.

  California Forecast

No 7's or 6's in the next 24 hours. Watch Bakersfield for a 3+ and maybe a 4. We are seeing more 3's and this increases the risk of more three and 4's. If they happen, they will occur within 150 miles of a previous 2.

World: 194

Calif: 390

Predictor Performance in last 24 hours: High for the world. Medium for

CA.

  World Reality

• Predicted a 5+ north of Chile and there was a 5.0 88 miles north of Chile.
• Predicted a 4+ in Mexico and there was a 4.3 in Baja Calif. Sur, Mexico
• Predicted a 4+ in China there was a 4.3 in Myitkyina, Myanmar India. But this is only 97 miles from China! I need to put maps on the website. Because country borders are not a good description.

Overall, I got time, size and place for all three areas!

  California Reality

As predicted there was not a 7 in the 24 hours. There were more threes. Like one in Santa Barbara. This is 54 miles from where I said to watch for the possible 4. I still have 24 hours for the 4. But, this quakecast is correct for place and time. I missed size.

  World Forecast

The world number is going up from aftershocks. It is still in the dangerous position of lower than 206. Therefore anyplace that has had a five in the last week may have the 6+ over the weekend.

  California Forecast

Watch the Tejon Pass for a 3+ quake. Maybe a 4 over the weekend. No 7's this weekend.

World: 167

Calif: 370

Predictor Performance in last 24 hours: Poor - I am rusty!

  World Reality

As predicted the world number will dropped in the next 24 hours from 183 to 167. This is significant because when the number drops below 200 the chance of a 6+ increases. There really weren't any larger quakes yesterday. The good news is several 4 size aftershocks but none by Indonesia.

  California Reality

I was wrong. There was a 4.1 in the Channel Islands off the coast of California. Technically, it is not California but still it is in the area.

  World Forecast

There will be a 5+ north of Chile in the next 72 hours. There will be a 4+ in Mexico in the next 72 hours. There will be a 4+ in China in the next 72 hours. Please note with the world number low, the chance of the earthquake being a 6+ is greater than usual.

  California Forecast

Watch the Tejon pass area for a possible 4 in the next 72 hours. The threes are increasing and there have been a couple of fours. With the California number below 400 we have a higher chance for a 4+. There will not be a 7 in California in the next 24 hours.

Happy New Year

This will be an exciting year for quakecast followers. First, the name is in process of being trademarked. I'll keep you posted if the US Government approves the request. Second, I hope to add other features to the blog including maps of high warning areas.

In the meantime, I'll be watching and quakecasting around the globe and especially California.

World: 183

Calif: 338

Predictor Performance in last 24 hours: None -- I was on vacation

  World Reality

The world number never went up over 200 on my entire vacation. This is very unusual. I think I need to track the world number. I know it is typically over 200. With the world number low, there was a 6.8 quake in Japan. It got no news in the US. Also, last week there were 6 earthquakes in the middle east. Remember, I said we'd see activity start up there. No 6's but still it went from very quiet to slightly active.

  California Reality

There was a three in the Geyers, CA. and lots of twos.

  World Forecast

I have to get readjusted. It's been two weeks so please consider that I may be rusted with this quakecast. The world number will drop in the next 24 hours. There has been very few aftershocks since yesterday. I am not sure when the quakes happened, because I was away but it should go down. This increases the risk of a 6 or a 7. Based on location of the 6.8 and other 5+ breakouts, I'd watch Indonesia for a larger quake.

  California Forecast

I am only going to make a 24 hour quakecast because I've been out of it for a while. There will be no 4+ in the next 24 hours. There will be more 2's and a three. Watch the San Francisco area for the 3+.