Happy Holidays

I will be going on vacation and back January 2nd. I'll be peaking during the break but will not be making formal quakecasts. Happy Holiday Season to everyone!

World: 188

Calif: 410

Predictor Performance in last 24 hours: Medium

  World Reality

I predicted that the quake would happen near Argentina. The aftershock hit as expected with a 4.3 just 90 miles away. There were no 6's some 5's but all within 300 miles of other previous quakes.

  California Reality

I predicted lot's and lot's of more two's and the largest if at all a 3.5. Well there were lot's and lot's of 2's. No threes. This is significant because I can quakecast when not to worry!

World: 193

Calif: 395

Predictor Performance in last 24 hours: Medium

  World Reality

World number is creeping back up to 200 without the 6+. There have been several 5.5 - 5.8's but no six. I knew the world number would go higher with the aftershocks. I predicted may hit 200 without the 6. But, don't feel to secure. The world number is still low...

  California Reality

Correct on lots more twos and no quakes greater than a 3.9. However, there was not a 3+ in Northern California. It happened in over 200 miles off the coast of Oregon. I think it is key to know when the big quakes are NOT coming. This will be used eventually for the quakecasttoday predictor so people know when to really have their guard up!

  World Forecast

I am still surprised by the lack of the 6. But I do see how there are LOTS of aftershocks. The six is still a reality until we hit 206 for the world number. Argentina needs to be on alert.

  California Forecast

In the next 24 hours largest quake will be a 3.5, if at all. Area of concern is Sacramento. Lot's and lot's more two's.

World: 181

Calif: 362

Predictor Performance in last 24 hours: Medium

  World Reality

No 6's over the weekend. Very interesting because the world number is still low. There was an outbreak of aftershocks so the pressure must have dissipated enough. I said the aftershocks would be strongest by Boliva, South America. There was a 4.7 in San Antonio de los Cobres, Salta, Arg. which is 574 miles away. The other aftershock in south America was in LIMA, Peru with a 4.8. I said there would be 4's and 5's and it stayed in the 4 range. Other areas of concern are area around Hualien, Taiwan. There was a 5.7 in Palopo, Indonesia. This is 1,000 miles from Taiwan. So, I sort of got the region but it is really far away. I think the important point here is to know when the big quake is not coming. I knew it would not be a 7+. Also, I mentioned watching the quakes move up north up  Mexico to California. There was a 4.5 in Chiapas, Mexico over the weekend.

  California Reality

I've been talking about the 3's coming to California and maybe even a 4. They are here! There was a 3.2 in Pinnacles, CA which is 274 miles from Riverside California. I knew they'd get hit over the weekend. I thought maybe even a 4. I knew it wouldn't be bigger than a 4. So this is correct for time, place and size. There was also a 3.1 in the Geyers, CA. These are the first threes in weeks. This is significant.

  World Forecast

There will be a 6+ if the aftershocks do not get the world number up to 200. At this rate, I see a lot of aftershocks so we may hit 200 without the 6. However, the world number is low and the chance is still higher than if the world number was over 250. Watch areas within an 850 miles of a previous 5 for the 6 quake.

  California Forecast

Watch northern California for another 3+. In the next 24 hours there will not be a quake greater than a 3.9. Lot's more 2's in the next 24 hours.

Sorry for the lateness, I had no interent for the past three days.

World: 161

Calif: 385

Predictor Performance in last 24 hours: Poor -- worst yet. I think it is a timing issue. I predicted for 24 hours. Need a 72 hour timeframe.

  World Reality

Well as predicted there were 4's and 5's in South America. They were not around Boliva. They centered south around Chile. The world number did not creep back up and there was not the 6 yet... The world number this low means pressure is building up. Also, the aftershocks did not hit around Taiwan. They did occur just closer to Japan. Also, Mexico and Southern California are mysterious quiet. I think I said I watch for 24 hours and the lesson learn is to do 72 hour predictions.

  California Reality

This quakecast I did correctly. I said only 2's for the 24 hours and that's all there were! This is good because it says I can tell when the big one's don't hit.

  World Forecast

Watch the area around Boliva, South America. We will see some 4 and 5's there. Also, if the world number does not creep back up, a possible 6. Other areas of concern are area around Hualien, Taiwan in the next 48 hours. I think after that it may move north up Mexico to California. I'll watch for the next 48 hours.

  California Forecast

Watch the area of Riverside for the possible 4 over the weekend.

World: 172

Calif: 370

Predictor Performance in last 24 hours: High, predicted a 7

  World Reality

Well, like I said yesterday if the 5's did not break out and the world number did not go above 200 we would have a 7. Guess what! The world number is 172 and there was a 7.1 in New Guinea, PNG which is within 850 miles of a 5.1 earlier in the week in Papa New Guinea. This is correct for size, place and time. Now, I said yesterday, I was concerned about the Philippines. I knew it would happen on that side of the world and not South America, Mexico region. This is the first 7 since I started documenting the process. I think I am seeing conditions that are ripe for when the 7 hits. I wish I could run the historic data, but the USGS website tracks data incongruent with how the hypothesis works. The good news is they have the data. It just will be laborious to input every quake and analyze it. So, hang in as you watch the data get tracked on a go-forward basis. One day, when I am not busy making a living, I'll input the data myself.

  California Reality

I still have 24 hours for the 3 to occur in California. There was a 3.1 in Colorado City, AZ. This is on the mid line I keep talking about and is less than 200 miles from the California border. That is pretty close. I still think it is going west. So, I'll wait the next 24 hours to see if it happens. Otherwise, I got time and size and missed place by less than 200 miles.

  World Forecast

A 7 changes everything, we'll maybe not. I believe the hypothesis will hold. So, let's watch for an outbreak of aftershocks. Some will be 5's maybe a 6. Especially a six if the world number does not creep back up. I'd watch the 850 mile radius around Okinawa, Japan for increase activity. Also, after the activity increase there, we will see more activity inland in China and the middle east. That's what is coming in the next two weeks. But, this QuakeCastToday is just a 72 hour forecast. So, for now watch out Asia.

  California Forecast

Southern California will see a three in the next 24 hours. I also forecast a 3+ for the San Francisco area in the next 24 hours. But, just to be clear the 3 in Colorado City, Az is 518 miles from San Francisco. When I pick a city, the region surrounding the city on a world wide scale is 850 miles. This is too big for California. My range right now for California is 300 miles.

World: 168

Calif: 368

Predictor Performance in last 24 hours: Medium

  World Reality

So far one of the two 6's hit as predicted. There was a 6.0 in Sulawesi, Indonesia. I said watch near the Philippines. It says it is 1,000 miles away but looks a lot closer on the map. I put in regions on the map calculator when quakes are in the water so it may be 150 miles off. Also, I said watch for Piura, South America. There was not a 6 but a 5.4 in David, Panama. This is 950 miles away. But the quake was in the water so I don't think this is an accurate distance. I can't put in water locations. The point is I am getting close for regions and size.

  California Reality

Still small quakes in California. I have 48 more hours for the 3+ to occur.

  World Forecast

I must admit, the world number is staying low. This is unusual. Watch around El Salvador. There will be more activity in the region. We will have another 6 or if the 5's do not break out the 7. I am still concerned for the Philippines.

  California Forecast

Southern California will see a three in the next 48 hours. I also forecast a 3+ for the San Francisco area in the next 48 hours.

World: 170

Calif: 375

Predictor Performance in last 24 hours: HIGH

  World Reality

There was a 6.5 in Guerrero, Mexico. The world number was 185 at the

time of the quake. I said will be another 6+ if the world number stayed

under 200. I said I was concerned about Haiti and the northern area of

South America. Or towards Mexico. I was trying to describe the latitude

line from Haiti towards Mexico and that is exactly where it

hit!!! Correct for time, place and size.

  California Reality

Let's talk about the midline. There was a 3.0 in Trinidad, Colorado

right on the line. There was a 2.1 in San Martin, CA 65 miles from San

Francisco. I got time, and place missed magnitude by 0.9. That's a clear

miss. The point is there is more and more mid line activity. The timing

is right, it just size I have to predict better for. We had mostly 2's.

  World Forecast

I must admit, the world number is low considering two 6+ in the last

week. If the outbreak of 5's doesn't pick up to top the 200 mark, we

will see the 7+ or two more 6+ to get the number higher. Naturally, all

areas within 850 miles of the 5 should be on higher alert. I'd

especially watch the area around Luzon, Philippines and Piura, South

America. Also, the recent 6 in Mexico is going to cause a 4+ to move

north. It can be as high as a 4 around Southern California.

  California Forecast

Southern California will see a three in the next 72 hours. There was a

3.1 in Baja California Mexico and it will move north. I also forecast a

3+ for the San Francisco area in the next 72 hours.

To my followers:

Time to let others know about the site. The hypotheses are working... so far. Wait till you see today's results! It is too accurate to believe. I've called the USGS, and they said they do not Quakecast because it is too expensive and unreliable. I do this from my basement and spend no money... just 7 minutes a day. I called them because I wanted to run data looking backwards to confirm the hypothesis but they do NOT save the key number. That is why this is a discovery! I talked with the website expert and she showed me how to run individual reports. I spent hours trying but the data  captured mixes magnitudes of quakes so you can't easily verify the data. I think this is why they never figured it out. It can be done. I just need some time and some computer savvy. Until then, please share QuakeCasttoday with your friends. Again, it's for fun. But, judge for yourself if it works. I do not want anyone to change their behavior based on the forecast. I just want people to be aware. I like weather forecasters make mistakes.

World: 185

Calif: 389

Predictor Performance in last 24 hours: HIGH, scary high!

  World Reality

I took a real chance with yesterday's quakecasttoday because I said to keep your eyes out for more 5's in EASTERN NEW GUINEA REG, PAPUA NEW GUINEA. I predicted they would not get the 6 because they have had a lot of activity. If the 6 did occur, I predicted it will be on the South America, Mexico fault line. Also, I said if the world number does not creep back up past 210 we will see the 6. So, guess what. The world number stayed under 200 and there was a 5.9 in Moluccas, Indonesia which is far but still on the same side of the ring of fire by New Guinea. The reason it's significant, is I said it would be less than a 6, even though the world number is low, because I believed there was so much activity it would reduce the size of the quake and the 6+ would happen elsewhere. With the world number low, I knew a 6 would happen and it did! I predicted it would be on the other side of the ring of fire. It was! A 6.1 in Atacama, Chile which is 271 miles from a previous 5 earthquake earlier in the week. This confirms the hypothesis again and is an accurate quakecasttoday for size, time and place.

  California Reality

I predicted a 4 within 850 miles of Baja, California Mexico. There was a 4.0 in Petrolia, CA which is 809 miles away. This is a little scary because Petrolia and Baja are active and produce bigger quakes. They tend to be precursors to larger quakes in California. This is the first time, I've seen them be in synch with each other.

  World Forecast

The world number will creep back up to the 200 mark. There will be an outbreak of 5's. If it doesn't in the next 72 hours there will be another 6+. Again, it will happen 850 miles from a previous 5. I am a little concerned about Haiti. Also, the northern area of South America. It can be east towards Mexico.

  California Forecast

California's number is under 400 and there has been two larger quakes on it's ends, Baja, Mexico and Petrolia. Remember when California number is under 400, the hypothesis says the chance of larger earthquakes exist. California's number may go as high as 500 for the chance of larger quakes. But, right now, the number is low. So the quakecasttoday says the 2's will start to increase to some 3's and possible 4. There already was a 3.3 in The Geysers, CA this morning. I'd be watching the midline of the US for activity, this means San Francisco area.

World: 184

Calif: 396

Predictor Performance in last 24 hours: did not make a prediction

  World Reality

The world number is dropping under 200. Yesterday, I noticed there were very few aftershocks to the 5's and I thought the number might even go lower. But this morning there are aftershocks starting up. However, we still have not had the 6. Last time the world number dropped to 155 before it hit. The quakes continue to come on the coast of Mexico. There was a 5 in Veracruz, Mexico.

  California Reality

Lot's of 2's. This is good because it is dissipating pressure. But remember, there have been several 5's getting close.

  World Forecast

Keep your eyes out for more 5's in Eastern New Guinea Red, Papua New Guinea. I don't think they will get the 6 because they have had a lot of activity. If the 6 does occur, I think it will be on the South America, Mexico fault line. Also, if the world number does not creep back up past 210 we will see the 6.

  California Forecast

Watch for a three in Southern CA in the next 72 hours. There may be a 4 within 850 miles of Baja, California Mexico. I know this is a big area. I need to refine the hypothesis.

Quick update - I am too busy this week with training but had to let everyone know the hypothesis held up over the weekend. There were no 6's and the world number was 230. I noticed yesterday very few

aftershocks and knew today the world number would dip. I just checked and it is 181. We all know what that means. There will be a 6+ in the next 72 hours.

Also, remember how I kept saying the earthquakes are going up the coast in Mexico and we should see a 5+ there. It happened on Sunday. A 5.2 in Baja California Sur, Mexico. Watch out in California. I think the mid-line may see a 3+. I also think we will see a 3+ in Southern California.

So, hold on for a 6+ It may even be a 7 because we have not had one in a while. It will be 850 miles from a 5+ in the last week.

I am away on business tomorrow and will not be able to update.

UPDATE: One other thing, I said there would be a 5+ in the next 48 hours around the 850 mile radius around Myitkyina, Myanmar. I said it would be a 6 if the world number was under 206. Well, the world number was in the 230's. So as predicted there was a 5.1 in Tibet, China, which is 478 miles away. Prediction correct for time, place and size!

PS: Sorry for putting this up late, finals and all just kind of took over yesterday.

World: 222

Calif: 358

Predictor Performance in last 24 hours: high

  World Reality

Again there were no 6's as predicted. The hypothesis says when the world

number is high, the chance of 6's are low. The number to watch out for

is 200 - 206.

  California Reality

I've been including Mexico with California because the quakes are moving

in the direction of California. To prove this point and confirm the

prediction there was a 5.0 in David, Panama and going on north a 4.5 in

Chiapas, Mexico. It's coming up the coast!!!! There was lots of 2's in

California on the midline. But, as predicted nothing too big. Just

midline activity.

  World Forecast

It's the weekend and I'll predict for the next 48 hours. There will be

a series of 5's in Asia. I'd be watching the 850 mile radius around

Myitkyina, Myanmar for a 5 and possible 6. I need to see if the world

number drops for the 6.

  California Forecast

Continued smaller shaking, especially near the midline. Biggest quake

if it occurs will be in the 3 range for the weekend.

World: 212

Calif: 348

Predictor Performance in last 24 hours: high

  World Reality

There were NO 6's as predicted. There was a 5.1 in Xizang (Tibet),

China. I just mention this because last week, I kept on talking about

the quakes moving east in Asia. Remember I kept talking about Peshewar.

Well, there was a 5.3 in Shache, Xinjiang, China which is 434 miles away

and it is in the range of my hypothesis. So, in this case I got size and

place miss timing by one week!

  California Reality

There was a 2.9 in San Juan Bautista, CA. OK, I missed size by 0.1. I

said it would be a three in the 72 hour period. It was a 2.9! I got

place and time correct. I am still giving myself a HIGH for magnitude.

  World Forecast

More outbreaks by Peshewar. With number higher than 210, chance of 6 is

less for the next 24 hours.

  California Forecast

Watch the midline for more activity. Also, the quakes are coming up the

coast of Mexico. Watch Baja California Mexico.

World: 212

Calif: 368

Predictor Performance in last 24 hours: high

  World Reality

As predicted. The aftershocks kept the world number in the around 206

for 24 hours period. There were one 6 in Olongapo, Luzon, Philippines

which is 325 miles from a 4.8 quake in Iloilo City, Philippines. This

helps confirm the hypothesis.

There was also a 4.6 in Sombrerete, Zacatecas, Mexico. I mentioned the

chance of a 5 increasing along the coast of Mexico. It is slightly

inland, and smaller in scale but it is what I expected. The quakes are

moving up towards CA.

  California Reality

More 2's along the midline. Still have 24 hours for a 3 in the area.

  World Forecast

There will be aftershocks around the 5's keeping the world number in

the above 206 for the next 24 hours which does reduce the chance of a 6.

The quakes are moving up the coast of Mexico.

  California Forecast

There were two threes yesterday at the critical points. A 3.0 by

Petrolia, CA and a 3 by Malibu, California. In the next 72 hours we will

see a 3+ on the midline of California. I also, think in the next couple

of weeks we will see a larger quake by those two points.

World: 167

Calif: 361

Predictor Performance in last 24 hours: High

  World Reality

As predicted, there was a 6.4 in Papua New Guinea when the world number

was 155. I said the world number could drop as low as 150 before the 6+

earthquake occurs. It happened just before hitting the low mark. I

waited on pins and needles this Thanksgiving weekend.

This is significant because this tells us timing. I knew it would hit

before the world number dropped too low. I also said it would occur

within 850 miles of a previous 4.5. Well, it occurred within 850 miles

of a 5.0 in Jayapura, Papua, Indonesia on the previous Thursday and

within 501 miles of a 4.7 just 8 hours earlier in Madang, Papua New

Guinea. This tells us place. So, the quakecast is correct for time,

place and size.

I spent time this weekend on the USGS website. It is a wonderful site

with lots of data, but it doesn't track size of earthquake to the world

number. I ran every quake for the last ten years and know the data I

need to validate my hypothesis. I am calling the USGS today to see if

they will run the data for me. I've made a discovery. I searched and

search the databases and the world number is not tracked with magnitude

by the USGS. I now just have to validate it. Stay tuned.

  California Reality

I thought and thought about my forecast for California because it said

if the world number is below 200 and California is below 400, then the

larger quake can happen in CA. I thought this could be alarming to CA

residents. I felt bad. But, over the weekend, I realized the hypothesis

clearly states the larger quake will happen within 850 of a previous 4.5

in the preceding week. Guess what. The 6 did not happen in CA because

there was not a 4.5 the previous week. So, just because the world number

and the CA number are in range, does not mean the threat is greater. We

need to see a 4.5 in the previous week.

  World Forecast

There will be a 5 and possible 6 within 500 miles of Oaxaca, Mexico. If

the world number jumps up fast from aftershocks, the chance of the 6

will be less. But, we will see a 5 in the next 72 hours along the coast

of Mexico.

  California Forecast

Watch of a 5 by Baja California, Mexico. That will be a precursor to

larger quakes in CA in the next 72 hours. If it does not happen, CA will

continue with the outbreak of 2's and maybe a 3.

World: 169

Calif: 389

I normally take the weekends off, but in light of the low world number I

did a quick check.

Yesterday's prediction still holds - As predicted the world number

dipped by 10 without another 6+ earthquake, exactly as predicted, there

were only 5's and lower in the previous 24 hours. Now, the 6+ earthquake

can happen anytime. The world number may go down as low as 150 before it

occurs. This means that areas within 850 miles of a previous 4.5 quake

in the last week, needs to be on alert for at least a 6 or maybe even

larger. The lower the world number the higher the likelihood of a 7+.

Also, there was a 2.8 in San Juan Bautista, CA. I said there would be a

three on the midline in California. I got time, place and pretty close

to magnitude.

World: 179

Calif: 373

Predictor Performance in last 24 hours: Medium

(I am starting to grade myself tougher. I predicted a 6.2 for size, place and time but missed a 4 in California for size. I got place and time. See details below.) I'll be creating a rubric for a consistent grading system going forward.

  World Reality

The world number stayed above 200 as predicted for 24 hours. There was a 4.8 aftershock in Crete, Greece as predicted. There was NOT 5+ between Manipur, India and Hualien, Taiwan, instead the aftershock was in Crete.

But the bigger news is the validation of the hypothesis. It worked for two earthquakes for size, time, and place on totally different hemispheres.

The hypothesis says to predict when a 6+ has a likelihood of occurring: "If the world number is around 200, then the quake will be a 6+. If the world number is over 215, then the quake will be in the 5 range. The quake will happen within 850 miles of a 4.5."

(Note around 200 is defined as not more than 206.)

Let's look at the facts:

Case 1 - 6.2 in Hokkaido, Japan on Thursday, Nov. 24th.

World Number at time of quake - 206

Distance from previous 4.5+ in prior week - 523 miles

Supports the hypothesis. The world number dipped to near 200 and the

quake happened within 850 of a previous quake.

Case 2 - 5.1 in San Miguel, El Salvador on Thursday, Nov. 24th

World Number at time of quake - 208

Distance from previous 4.5+ in the prior week - 357

Now, both quakes happened the same day. It is important to note that the hypothesis states the 6+ will happen when the world number is in the 200 range, I've set the upper limit as 206. 5's can happen any time, but do tend to occur near a previous 4.5.

Just for fun let's look at another example from the same day.

Case 3 - 5.0 in Papua, Indonesia

World number at time of quake - 209

Distance from previous 4.5+ in the prior week - 343

Again, for the 6 to happen the world number needs to be near 200 within the range of +3%. It can be lower as well. Otherwise, we see 5's.

  California Reality

Missed prediction for size. There was NOT a 4+ in southern California. But in the 72 hours there was a 3.1 in Anza, CA. Correct for time and place. I also missed on a second three quake in the area. There were no additional threes between Anza, CA and Valley Acres, CA. Just a breakout of 2's.

However, I did ask you to watch the midline of the US. I predicted the activity is increasing. There was a 3.7 in Shawnee, Oklahoma which is less than 100 miles from the mid line. This is important because the midline goes through San Francisco, CA. The US is cracking in the middle. I've never seen it before and we are seeing weekly activity on the mid-line. This means watching the world number and CA's number as a predictor for timing and size is critical. I'll be fine-tuning the hypothesis, to validate the numbers for predicting California's quakes.

World Forecast

The world number is well below 200 and will dip by another at least another 10 before a larger quake occurs. It may go down as low as 150. This means that areas within 850 miles of a previous 4.5 quake in the last week, needs to be on alert for at least a 6 or maybe even larger.

  California Forecast

Watch the midline. There is significant smaller activity in Southern California. There will be a three near the mid line. However, the number for a large quake in CA is in range. The hypothesis for California is "If the world number is below 200 and California is below 400, then a larger quake may happen in the state." I hope it's not true and I'll need to refine this hypothesis. But at this point, that is the hypothesis. To make my California friends more comfortable, in the past 6 years, the larger quakes happen outside the US.

A little out of character...

I normally never check status during the day ... but today I did and

we've already had the 6 I predicted! There was a 6.2 in Trinidad,

Bolivia. I checked to see how far it was from a 5 but I got the

distance wrong.... I had NO idea how big these countries are... I said

300 miles but it's 1700 miles. In my mind, that is the distance I was

thinking, I just had scale all wrong.... I'll update officially

tomorrow.

World: 202

Calif: 360

Predictor Performance in last 24 hours: High

World number is in the 200 territory. This means the probability of a 6+

is likely in the next 48 hours. The world number will be dropping in

the next 24 hours because there were few aftershocks yesterday. When

the world number drops below 200, there typically is a large earthquake

to raise it again. We just saw this last month, remember the Turkey

earthquake. So, hold on. The world number can drop as low as 180 before

the large earthquake happens. Also, California's number is below 400.

This is low, I believe. California also is more prone to larger

earthquakes when it's number is below 400 and the world number is below

200. In the last couple of years, when this scenario happens, typically

the larger quakes happen outside the US. This raises the world number

and I believe has protected California. I'd love to have time to do

some analysis and not just use my memory but I only spend 7 minutes a

day to predict world earthquakes.

  World Reality

As predicted, the world number dropped and is in the 200 range. There

was not an increase of activity near Pesawar because Turkey is still

active with a 4.6.

  California Reality

Predication correct for Time, place and magnitude. As predicted, there

was a series of little quakes all under 3 on the midline of the US in

the 24 hours predicted. Years ago, I never saw even little earthquakes

by the midline. Now, just as I said, there were four in the 24 hour time

period. A 1.1 in Tennessee, a 2.2 in Arkansas a 2.7 in Shawnee, Oklahoma

and even one in Steele, MO.

Baja, California, Mexico is getting more active with 3's. The 4+ did

not happen in the first 24 hours. The prediction is for 72 hours. Watch

for the next 48 hours.

  World Forecast

The world number is getting in the 200 range. When the number dips below

200 there is a large earthquake to bring it back up. In the next week,

we will either have a series of 5's or a 6+. The larger earthquake, a

6+, will happen within 300 miles of 5. The probability of a 7 is

greater when the world number is under 200. So be on alert.

  California Forecast

Yesterday's forecast still holds for 48 hours. Baja, California, Mexico

is getting more active with 3's. Watch for a 4+ in the next 48 hours in

the southern California region.

World: 209

Calif: 367

Predictor Performance in last 24 hours: High (almost scary how I nailed it!)

Just as some background to my followers, I spend 7 minutes a day predicting earthquakes worldwide. I wish I could spend more time but I have a business to run and I am writing a memoir as well. When I watch weather forecasters, I am a little envious because they get to spend so much time on a small portion of area. I predict for the world. Because I am a working mom, I only give myself 7 minutes a day to do this. I hope one day, I can teach others what to look for and they can narrow down the QUAKECAST for their area.

This blog specializes in identifying where, when and how big a quake will be. I measure myself based on the accuracy of the forecast. But, sometimes I can also predict when there will not be an earthquake. This weekend, I knew there would not be a 7+ anywhere in the world. I got it

right.

This week will be different. The world number dropped, stay tuned.

  World Reality

I predicted accurately that there would not be a 7+ quake in the next 48 hours, worldwide. This is significant because I want to develop a simple dash board on the blog. It will show regions when the chance of an earthquake is high, medium and low.

 There was a be a continuation of aftershocks in the 4 - 5 magnitude range, occurring in regions that have had a 5+ as predicted. I even said there is a small chance of a 6+ if the aftershocks slow down but since they didn't there was not one 6 during the prediction period. Instead lots of 5's where others already happened, just like predicted. There was a 5.0 and 5.2 near New Guinea, plus many others.

 I also spent last week talking about the earthquakes moving east of Turkey. I tried to describe where, I don't have a world map of countries so I said in the region of between Kuwait and Peshawar. Now, I can't find Peshwar on the map but, the earthquake did happen exactly where I thought it would. There was a 4.7 in Birjand, Iran. Eventually, when I have time, I'll get a Google map, but right now, I only have 7 minutes. In addition to never talking a geology class, I also never studied

geography. I know it shows, but I've decided not to be ashamed. You'll see me learn as time goes on. Please be patient.

  California Reality

Midline activity is increasing but not at the 4+ level yet. There was a 3.7 in Markleeville, CA. I got timing and place but missed magnitude. Also, the midline activity picked up again in Virginia with a 2.1.

  World Forecast

The world number is getting in the 200 range. When the number dips below 200 there is a large earthquake to bring it back up. In the next week, we will either have a series of 6's or a 7. India is getting active. I will be watching this region. There was a 5.9 in Manipur, India. Interesting because it is in the same region of Peshwar, just saw it on the USGS map. I predict increased activity near Peshwar, near that fault line.

  California Forecast

Baja, California, Mexico is getting more active with 3's. Watch for a 4+ in the next 72 hours.

 In the next 24 hours only little quakes under 3 will be on the midline.

World: 278

Calif: 364

Predictor Performance in last 24 hours: High

  World Reality

The outbreak of aftershocks in south America is well underway. There was

a 5.7 in Ecuador, a 5.2 in Guatemala, a 5.6 in the north east Pacific

Ocean and a 4.5 near Verecuz, Mexico. When I refer to south America I

include Mexico, I don't know if that is technically correct. Predication

correct for time, place, and size.

 As predicted, since the outbreak of 5's happened we did not have the 6

in the South American region.

 On the other side of the globe, I've been watching the area around

India. I said the quakes in Turkey will be moving east. There was a 4.7

in Khorugh, Tajikistan.

  California Reality

As predicted there was a 3.2 in The Geysers, CA. This is East of Point

Arena, just like I said it would be. Predication correct for Time,

Place, Size.

  World Forecast

With the world number at 278, we will not have a 7+ quake in the next 48

hours, worldwide. This holds until Sunday morning. There will be a

continuation of aftershocks in the 4 - 5 magnitude range, occurring in

regions that have had a 5+. There is a small chance of a 6+ if the

aftershocks slow down.

  California Forecast

Watch the midline in the US for a 4+ in the next 72 hours. It might not

be in California.

World: 249

Calif: 379

Predictor Performance in last 24 hours: Medium

  World Reality

There was not a 4+ between Kuwait and Peshawar, because the activity is

still occurring in Turkey. There were two 4.5+ earthquakes there,

instead. I will be watching for trends moving east.

  California Reality

Forecast correct. There was a 3.0 in Tres Pinos, California. There was a

3.4 in Carago.

 Forecast correct. California number increased from small 2+ earthquakes

in southern region. This is significant because I knew the big one was

not happening in that time frame

  World Forecast

In the next 72 hours, there will a break out of aftershocks in south

America. There is also an increased risk of a 6+ along the coast of

Mexico, if the outbreak of aftershocks does not occur. Most vulnerable

area is Baja, California. Based on the world number at 249, the chance

of a 7+ is low for Mexico in the next 72 hours.

  California Forecast

There will be a 3+ in northern California in the next 72 hours east of

Point Arena.

World: 231

Calif: 366

Predictor Performance in last 24 hours: Medium

  World Reality

The world number did not drop below 200 because there was a an outbreak

of 5's. This also is the reason a 7+ was not seen. Outbreaks of 5's are

good news. They slowed down for a while but came back yesterday. The 5

near Turkey is north west of where I thought we'd see the 4. I have to

find a better way to describe the areas where I believe the quakes are

occurring.

  California Reality

Prediction realized for place and time. Magnitude off. There were two

earthquakes by the midline, both in Central California. A 3.4 in

Cartago and a 3.2 in Toms Place.

 There was 3+ between Riverside, California and San Francisco. The one in

Cartago is between Riverside and San Francisco, on the longitude axis.

  World Forecast

In the next 72 hours, there will be a 4+ between Kuwait and Peshawar.

Again, I need to develop a map that will show the area I am referring

to.

  California Forecast

In the next 72 hours, there will be a 3+ between Riverside, California

and San Francisco.

 In the next 24 hours there will be increased activity in Southern

California with 2 - 3 quakes. I'll be watching if by tomorrow, I think

larger ones may happen.

World: 211

Calif: 334

Predictor Performance in last 24 hours: High

  World Reality

As predicted, There was a 5.0 north of Chile and Baja, Mexico in the 72

hours forecasted. It was in Venezuela, a little to the east but still

between the two locations.

 My "going out on a bigger limb" also proved true. There was a 6.3 in

Indonesia. I said there would be a 6+ in Asia or Australia if there was

not a 5+ in either India or Saudi Arabia in the 72 hours. There wasn't

one in India or Saudi Arabia and the bigger one did happen.

  California Reality

Prediction unrealized. There was not a 4+ on the midline. I still think

it is just a matter of time.

 Predication happened. There was a 3.0 in Riverside, California, slightly

lower than the 3+ projected. But, there were two 3.0's. The other one

was in Pine Valley, California.

  World Forecast

In the next 72 hours the world number will drop below 200, if a larger

quake does not happen. It is when the world number approaches 200 that

we see quakes of 7+. It can go either way. We will either see the 7+ or

the world number will drop. The aftershocks are slowing down and a

large quake is of higher probability. I predict in the next 24 hours we

will just see the world number drop. I need to get a world map because I

see where we may get some fours around Quetta and Multan. I don't know

country names....

  California Forecast

In the next 72 hours, there will be a 4+ on the midline. It might not be

in California, it may be east. There was a 3.7 in Montana, very unusual.

 In the next 72 hours, there will be a 3+ between Riverside, California

and San Francisco. I am trying to really narrow down predictions....

World: 261
Calif: 379
Predictor Performance in last 24 hours:  HIGH

  World Reality
Prediction correct. The world number will continues to be well above
220. But the bigger news is there was a 5.2 earthquake in Chile as
predicted. Forecast for Timing, location and size: all correct!

  California Reality
In the first 24 hours there was not a 4+ by the midline. I've predicted
it would happen in 72 hours.  We will see if it happens this weekend.

  World Forecast
There will be another 5+ going north of Chile and Baja, Mexico in the
next 72 hours.
 Going out on a bigger limb, there will be a 5+ in either India or Saudi
Arabia in the 72 hours. If that doesn't happen then there will be a 6+
in Asia or Australia.

  California Forecast
In the next 48 hours there will be a 4+ on the midline. It might not be
in California, it may be east.
 There will be a 3+ in Southern California in the next 48 hours.

World: 255

Calif: 351

Predictor Performance in last 24 hours: HIGH, both earthquakes

predicted yesterday happened!!!!

  World Reality

As predicted yesterday, larger quakes will produced more after quakes

keeping the world number over 220.

 As predicted yesterday, there was 5.6 aftershock in Turkey. I said it

would be 3+. I knew it would be higher, but didn't want to overestimate

it. I am still perfecting this technique. This is an example of a

correct forecast for location and timing and magnitude.

  California Reality

As predicted yesterday, the midline activity moving west. There was a

4.0 off the coast of California right be the midline. Again, this is an

example of a correct forecast for location and timing and magnitude.

  World Forecast

The world number will continue to be well above 220 in the next 72

hours. There will be a 5+ earthquake between Chile and Baja, Mexico in

the next 72 hours.

  California Forecast

There will be a 4+ by the midline. It might not be in California. It

will be anywhere in the US by the midline. However, I am seeing a

tendency for the midline activity to be moving west. Yesterday's

earthquake in the ocean is an example. My forecast holds for the next 72

hours that there will be a 4+ on the midline.

World: 259
Calif: 368

  World Forecast

Larger quakes will produce more after quakes keeping the world number

over 220 for the next 72 hours. But, most of the aftershocks are in
Alaska and US. There seems to be a shift to North America. In the next
24 hours, more aftershocks on the US side of the ring of fire.
 There will be a 3+ aftershock in Turkey.

  World Reality
As predicted yesterday, world number well above 220.

  California Forecast
Watch for midline activity moving west.  There was a 4.0 in Eureka
Nevada. I believe this is to balance out the Oklahoma quake.  I forecast
another 4+ around the midline of the US in the next 72 hours. It can be
anywhere in the US around the midline.

  California Reality
No specific forecast made yesterday for updating.


Warning signs:

Two signs that a 8+ quake is coming to California are:
1. A 5+ quake either in Baja California, Mexico or off the coast of
northern California.
2. a 4+ quake near San Francisco.
 Remember, when the world number dips below or around 200 and California
is under 500 the chance for the larger quakes exist and typically happen
within 48 hours. It can take 6 months to two years for the world number

to dip. So just because one of the above signs happens does NOT mean the
big quake is coming. We need the total world number and California
number to be in sync as well.

Know what?  I decided to start again. I knew about the Turkey earthquake
and it just scared me.  But, now that we've had a 5.6 in Oklahoma, I
think it is getting too close to California for me to stop.

World: 253
Calif: 348

Larger quakes will produce more after quakes keeping the world number
over 220 for the next 72 hours.  There is a pattern of the larger quakes
(6+) to happen near a 3 or 4 quake from the previous week. Same thing
happened in Oklahoma, those are prequakes.

For California, the big quake is coming, I predict within 5 years but
will use this forum to narrow down the timeline to one week. The reason
I know it is coming is because of the midline activity in the US. It
started in Virginia and is making its way west. Oklahoma is a quake on
the mid line. Again, if you draw the line out to the Pacific ocean, you
intersect San Francisco. It is just a matter of when. Two signs that a
8+ quake is coming to California are:

  1. A 5+ quake either in Baja California, Mexico or off the coast of
       northern California.
  2. a 4+ quake near San Francisco.

Remember, when the world number dips below or around 200 and California
is under 500 the chance for the larger quakes exist and typically happen
within 48 hours. It can take 6 months to two years for the world number
to dip, now that the activity level is rising. Remember when I kept
saying this summer, the activity level was unusually low.  Now you see
what I am talking about because we've been having an outbreak of 5+
quakes world wide.