World: 179

Calif: 373

Predictor Performance in last 24 hours: Medium

(I am starting to grade myself tougher. I predicted a 6.2 for size, place and time but missed a 4 in California for size. I got place and time. See details below.) I'll be creating a rubric for a consistent grading system going forward.

  World Reality

The world number stayed above 200 as predicted for 24 hours. There was a 4.8 aftershock in Crete, Greece as predicted. There was NOT 5+ between Manipur, India and Hualien, Taiwan, instead the aftershock was in Crete.

But the bigger news is the validation of the hypothesis. It worked for two earthquakes for size, time, and place on totally different hemispheres.

The hypothesis says to predict when a 6+ has a likelihood of occurring: "If the world number is around 200, then the quake will be a 6+. If the world number is over 215, then the quake will be in the 5 range. The quake will happen within 850 miles of a 4.5."

(Note around 200 is defined as not more than 206.)

Let's look at the facts:

Case 1 - 6.2 in Hokkaido, Japan on Thursday, Nov. 24th.

World Number at time of quake - 206

Distance from previous 4.5+ in prior week - 523 miles

Supports the hypothesis. The world number dipped to near 200 and the

quake happened within 850 of a previous quake.

Case 2 - 5.1 in San Miguel, El Salvador on Thursday, Nov. 24th

World Number at time of quake - 208

Distance from previous 4.5+ in the prior week - 357

Now, both quakes happened the same day. It is important to note that the hypothesis states the 6+ will happen when the world number is in the 200 range, I've set the upper limit as 206. 5's can happen any time, but do tend to occur near a previous 4.5.

Just for fun let's look at another example from the same day.

Case 3 - 5.0 in Papua, Indonesia

World number at time of quake - 209

Distance from previous 4.5+ in the prior week - 343

Again, for the 6 to happen the world number needs to be near 200 within the range of +3%. It can be lower as well. Otherwise, we see 5's.

  California Reality

Missed prediction for size. There was NOT a 4+ in southern California. But in the 72 hours there was a 3.1 in Anza, CA. Correct for time and place. I also missed on a second three quake in the area. There were no additional threes between Anza, CA and Valley Acres, CA. Just a breakout of 2's.

However, I did ask you to watch the midline of the US. I predicted the activity is increasing. There was a 3.7 in Shawnee, Oklahoma which is less than 100 miles from the mid line. This is important because the midline goes through San Francisco, CA. The US is cracking in the middle. I've never seen it before and we are seeing weekly activity on the mid-line. This means watching the world number and CA's number as a predictor for timing and size is critical. I'll be fine-tuning the hypothesis, to validate the numbers for predicting California's quakes.

World Forecast

The world number is well below 200 and will dip by another at least another 10 before a larger quake occurs. It may go down as low as 150. This means that areas within 850 miles of a previous 4.5 quake in the last week, needs to be on alert for at least a 6 or maybe even larger.

  California Forecast

Watch the midline. There is significant smaller activity in Southern California. There will be a three near the mid line. However, the number for a large quake in CA is in range. The hypothesis for California is "If the world number is below 200 and California is below 400, then a larger quake may happen in the state." I hope it's not true and I'll need to refine this hypothesis. But at this point, that is the hypothesis. To make my California friends more comfortable, in the past 6 years, the larger quakes happen outside the US.