Happy Holidays

I will be going on vacation and back January 2nd. I'll be peaking during the break but will not be making formal quakecasts. Happy Holiday Season to everyone!

World: 188

Calif: 410

Predictor Performance in last 24 hours: Medium

  World Reality

I predicted that the quake would happen near Argentina. The aftershock hit as expected with a 4.3 just 90 miles away. There were no 6's some 5's but all within 300 miles of other previous quakes.

  California Reality

I predicted lot's and lot's of more two's and the largest if at all a 3.5. Well there were lot's and lot's of 2's. No threes. This is significant because I can quakecast when not to worry!

World: 193

Calif: 395

Predictor Performance in last 24 hours: Medium

  World Reality

World number is creeping back up to 200 without the 6+. There have been several 5.5 - 5.8's but no six. I knew the world number would go higher with the aftershocks. I predicted may hit 200 without the 6. But, don't feel to secure. The world number is still low...

  California Reality

Correct on lots more twos and no quakes greater than a 3.9. However, there was not a 3+ in Northern California. It happened in over 200 miles off the coast of Oregon. I think it is key to know when the big quakes are NOT coming. This will be used eventually for the quakecasttoday predictor so people know when to really have their guard up!

  World Forecast

I am still surprised by the lack of the 6. But I do see how there are LOTS of aftershocks. The six is still a reality until we hit 206 for the world number. Argentina needs to be on alert.

  California Forecast

In the next 24 hours largest quake will be a 3.5, if at all. Area of concern is Sacramento. Lot's and lot's more two's.

World: 181

Calif: 362

Predictor Performance in last 24 hours: Medium

  World Reality

No 6's over the weekend. Very interesting because the world number is still low. There was an outbreak of aftershocks so the pressure must have dissipated enough. I said the aftershocks would be strongest by Boliva, South America. There was a 4.7 in San Antonio de los Cobres, Salta, Arg. which is 574 miles away. The other aftershock in south America was in LIMA, Peru with a 4.8. I said there would be 4's and 5's and it stayed in the 4 range. Other areas of concern are area around Hualien, Taiwan. There was a 5.7 in Palopo, Indonesia. This is 1,000 miles from Taiwan. So, I sort of got the region but it is really far away. I think the important point here is to know when the big quake is not coming. I knew it would not be a 7+. Also, I mentioned watching the quakes move up north up  Mexico to California. There was a 4.5 in Chiapas, Mexico over the weekend.

  California Reality

I've been talking about the 3's coming to California and maybe even a 4. They are here! There was a 3.2 in Pinnacles, CA which is 274 miles from Riverside California. I knew they'd get hit over the weekend. I thought maybe even a 4. I knew it wouldn't be bigger than a 4. So this is correct for time, place and size. There was also a 3.1 in the Geyers, CA. These are the first threes in weeks. This is significant.

  World Forecast

There will be a 6+ if the aftershocks do not get the world number up to 200. At this rate, I see a lot of aftershocks so we may hit 200 without the 6. However, the world number is low and the chance is still higher than if the world number was over 250. Watch areas within an 850 miles of a previous 5 for the 6 quake.

  California Forecast

Watch northern California for another 3+. In the next 24 hours there will not be a quake greater than a 3.9. Lot's more 2's in the next 24 hours.

Sorry for the lateness, I had no interent for the past three days.

World: 161

Calif: 385

Predictor Performance in last 24 hours: Poor -- worst yet. I think it is a timing issue. I predicted for 24 hours. Need a 72 hour timeframe.

  World Reality

Well as predicted there were 4's and 5's in South America. They were not around Boliva. They centered south around Chile. The world number did not creep back up and there was not the 6 yet... The world number this low means pressure is building up. Also, the aftershocks did not hit around Taiwan. They did occur just closer to Japan. Also, Mexico and Southern California are mysterious quiet. I think I said I watch for 24 hours and the lesson learn is to do 72 hour predictions.

  California Reality

This quakecast I did correctly. I said only 2's for the 24 hours and that's all there were! This is good because it says I can tell when the big one's don't hit.

  World Forecast

Watch the area around Boliva, South America. We will see some 4 and 5's there. Also, if the world number does not creep back up, a possible 6. Other areas of concern are area around Hualien, Taiwan in the next 48 hours. I think after that it may move north up Mexico to California. I'll watch for the next 48 hours.

  California Forecast

Watch the area of Riverside for the possible 4 over the weekend.

World: 172

Calif: 370

Predictor Performance in last 24 hours: High, predicted a 7

  World Reality

Well, like I said yesterday if the 5's did not break out and the world number did not go above 200 we would have a 7. Guess what! The world number is 172 and there was a 7.1 in New Guinea, PNG which is within 850 miles of a 5.1 earlier in the week in Papa New Guinea. This is correct for size, place and time. Now, I said yesterday, I was concerned about the Philippines. I knew it would happen on that side of the world and not South America, Mexico region. This is the first 7 since I started documenting the process. I think I am seeing conditions that are ripe for when the 7 hits. I wish I could run the historic data, but the USGS website tracks data incongruent with how the hypothesis works. The good news is they have the data. It just will be laborious to input every quake and analyze it. So, hang in as you watch the data get tracked on a go-forward basis. One day, when I am not busy making a living, I'll input the data myself.

  California Reality

I still have 24 hours for the 3 to occur in California. There was a 3.1 in Colorado City, AZ. This is on the mid line I keep talking about and is less than 200 miles from the California border. That is pretty close. I still think it is going west. So, I'll wait the next 24 hours to see if it happens. Otherwise, I got time and size and missed place by less than 200 miles.

  World Forecast

A 7 changes everything, we'll maybe not. I believe the hypothesis will hold. So, let's watch for an outbreak of aftershocks. Some will be 5's maybe a 6. Especially a six if the world number does not creep back up. I'd watch the 850 mile radius around Okinawa, Japan for increase activity. Also, after the activity increase there, we will see more activity inland in China and the middle east. That's what is coming in the next two weeks. But, this QuakeCastToday is just a 72 hour forecast. So, for now watch out Asia.

  California Forecast

Southern California will see a three in the next 24 hours. I also forecast a 3+ for the San Francisco area in the next 24 hours. But, just to be clear the 3 in Colorado City, Az is 518 miles from San Francisco. When I pick a city, the region surrounding the city on a world wide scale is 850 miles. This is too big for California. My range right now for California is 300 miles.

World: 168

Calif: 368

Predictor Performance in last 24 hours: Medium

  World Reality

So far one of the two 6's hit as predicted. There was a 6.0 in Sulawesi, Indonesia. I said watch near the Philippines. It says it is 1,000 miles away but looks a lot closer on the map. I put in regions on the map calculator when quakes are in the water so it may be 150 miles off. Also, I said watch for Piura, South America. There was not a 6 but a 5.4 in David, Panama. This is 950 miles away. But the quake was in the water so I don't think this is an accurate distance. I can't put in water locations. The point is I am getting close for regions and size.

  California Reality

Still small quakes in California. I have 48 more hours for the 3+ to occur.

  World Forecast

I must admit, the world number is staying low. This is unusual. Watch around El Salvador. There will be more activity in the region. We will have another 6 or if the 5's do not break out the 7. I am still concerned for the Philippines.

  California Forecast

Southern California will see a three in the next 48 hours. I also forecast a 3+ for the San Francisco area in the next 48 hours.

World: 170

Calif: 375

Predictor Performance in last 24 hours: HIGH

  World Reality

There was a 6.5 in Guerrero, Mexico. The world number was 185 at the

time of the quake. I said will be another 6+ if the world number stayed

under 200. I said I was concerned about Haiti and the northern area of

South America. Or towards Mexico. I was trying to describe the latitude

line from Haiti towards Mexico and that is exactly where it

hit!!! Correct for time, place and size.

  California Reality

Let's talk about the midline. There was a 3.0 in Trinidad, Colorado

right on the line. There was a 2.1 in San Martin, CA 65 miles from San

Francisco. I got time, and place missed magnitude by 0.9. That's a clear

miss. The point is there is more and more mid line activity. The timing

is right, it just size I have to predict better for. We had mostly 2's.

  World Forecast

I must admit, the world number is low considering two 6+ in the last

week. If the outbreak of 5's doesn't pick up to top the 200 mark, we

will see the 7+ or two more 6+ to get the number higher. Naturally, all

areas within 850 miles of the 5 should be on higher alert. I'd

especially watch the area around Luzon, Philippines and Piura, South

America. Also, the recent 6 in Mexico is going to cause a 4+ to move

north. It can be as high as a 4 around Southern California.

  California Forecast

Southern California will see a three in the next 72 hours. There was a

3.1 in Baja California Mexico and it will move north. I also forecast a

3+ for the San Francisco area in the next 72 hours.

To my followers:

Time to let others know about the site. The hypotheses are working... so far. Wait till you see today's results! It is too accurate to believe. I've called the USGS, and they said they do not Quakecast because it is too expensive and unreliable. I do this from my basement and spend no money... just 7 minutes a day. I called them because I wanted to run data looking backwards to confirm the hypothesis but they do NOT save the key number. That is why this is a discovery! I talked with the website expert and she showed me how to run individual reports. I spent hours trying but the data  captured mixes magnitudes of quakes so you can't easily verify the data. I think this is why they never figured it out. It can be done. I just need some time and some computer savvy. Until then, please share QuakeCasttoday with your friends. Again, it's for fun. But, judge for yourself if it works. I do not want anyone to change their behavior based on the forecast. I just want people to be aware. I like weather forecasters make mistakes.

World: 185

Calif: 389

Predictor Performance in last 24 hours: HIGH, scary high!

  World Reality

I took a real chance with yesterday's quakecasttoday because I said to keep your eyes out for more 5's in EASTERN NEW GUINEA REG, PAPUA NEW GUINEA. I predicted they would not get the 6 because they have had a lot of activity. If the 6 did occur, I predicted it will be on the South America, Mexico fault line. Also, I said if the world number does not creep back up past 210 we will see the 6. So, guess what. The world number stayed under 200 and there was a 5.9 in Moluccas, Indonesia which is far but still on the same side of the ring of fire by New Guinea. The reason it's significant, is I said it would be less than a 6, even though the world number is low, because I believed there was so much activity it would reduce the size of the quake and the 6+ would happen elsewhere. With the world number low, I knew a 6 would happen and it did! I predicted it would be on the other side of the ring of fire. It was! A 6.1 in Atacama, Chile which is 271 miles from a previous 5 earthquake earlier in the week. This confirms the hypothesis again and is an accurate quakecasttoday for size, time and place.

  California Reality

I predicted a 4 within 850 miles of Baja, California Mexico. There was a 4.0 in Petrolia, CA which is 809 miles away. This is a little scary because Petrolia and Baja are active and produce bigger quakes. They tend to be precursors to larger quakes in California. This is the first time, I've seen them be in synch with each other.

  World Forecast

The world number will creep back up to the 200 mark. There will be an outbreak of 5's. If it doesn't in the next 72 hours there will be another 6+. Again, it will happen 850 miles from a previous 5. I am a little concerned about Haiti. Also, the northern area of South America. It can be east towards Mexico.

  California Forecast

California's number is under 400 and there has been two larger quakes on it's ends, Baja, Mexico and Petrolia. Remember when California number is under 400, the hypothesis says the chance of larger earthquakes exist. California's number may go as high as 500 for the chance of larger quakes. But, right now, the number is low. So the quakecasttoday says the 2's will start to increase to some 3's and possible 4. There already was a 3.3 in The Geysers, CA this morning. I'd be watching the midline of the US for activity, this means San Francisco area.

World: 184

Calif: 396

Predictor Performance in last 24 hours: did not make a prediction

  World Reality

The world number is dropping under 200. Yesterday, I noticed there were very few aftershocks to the 5's and I thought the number might even go lower. But this morning there are aftershocks starting up. However, we still have not had the 6. Last time the world number dropped to 155 before it hit. The quakes continue to come on the coast of Mexico. There was a 5 in Veracruz, Mexico.

  California Reality

Lot's of 2's. This is good because it is dissipating pressure. But remember, there have been several 5's getting close.

  World Forecast

Keep your eyes out for more 5's in Eastern New Guinea Red, Papua New Guinea. I don't think they will get the 6 because they have had a lot of activity. If the 6 does occur, I think it will be on the South America, Mexico fault line. Also, if the world number does not creep back up past 210 we will see the 6.

  California Forecast

Watch for a three in Southern CA in the next 72 hours. There may be a 4 within 850 miles of Baja, California Mexico. I know this is a big area. I need to refine the hypothesis.

Quick update - I am too busy this week with training but had to let everyone know the hypothesis held up over the weekend. There were no 6's and the world number was 230. I noticed yesterday very few

aftershocks and knew today the world number would dip. I just checked and it is 181. We all know what that means. There will be a 6+ in the next 72 hours.

Also, remember how I kept saying the earthquakes are going up the coast in Mexico and we should see a 5+ there. It happened on Sunday. A 5.2 in Baja California Sur, Mexico. Watch out in California. I think the mid-line may see a 3+. I also think we will see a 3+ in Southern California.

So, hold on for a 6+ It may even be a 7 because we have not had one in a while. It will be 850 miles from a 5+ in the last week.

I am away on business tomorrow and will not be able to update.

UPDATE: One other thing, I said there would be a 5+ in the next 48 hours around the 850 mile radius around Myitkyina, Myanmar. I said it would be a 6 if the world number was under 206. Well, the world number was in the 230's. So as predicted there was a 5.1 in Tibet, China, which is 478 miles away. Prediction correct for time, place and size!

PS: Sorry for putting this up late, finals and all just kind of took over yesterday.

World: 222

Calif: 358

Predictor Performance in last 24 hours: high

  World Reality

Again there were no 6's as predicted. The hypothesis says when the world

number is high, the chance of 6's are low. The number to watch out for

is 200 - 206.

  California Reality

I've been including Mexico with California because the quakes are moving

in the direction of California. To prove this point and confirm the

prediction there was a 5.0 in David, Panama and going on north a 4.5 in

Chiapas, Mexico. It's coming up the coast!!!! There was lots of 2's in

California on the midline. But, as predicted nothing too big. Just

midline activity.

  World Forecast

It's the weekend and I'll predict for the next 48 hours. There will be

a series of 5's in Asia. I'd be watching the 850 mile radius around

Myitkyina, Myanmar for a 5 and possible 6. I need to see if the world

number drops for the 6.

  California Forecast

Continued smaller shaking, especially near the midline. Biggest quake

if it occurs will be in the 3 range for the weekend.

World: 212

Calif: 348

Predictor Performance in last 24 hours: high

  World Reality

There were NO 6's as predicted. There was a 5.1 in Xizang (Tibet),

China. I just mention this because last week, I kept on talking about

the quakes moving east in Asia. Remember I kept talking about Peshewar.

Well, there was a 5.3 in Shache, Xinjiang, China which is 434 miles away

and it is in the range of my hypothesis. So, in this case I got size and

place miss timing by one week!

  California Reality

There was a 2.9 in San Juan Bautista, CA. OK, I missed size by 0.1. I

said it would be a three in the 72 hour period. It was a 2.9! I got

place and time correct. I am still giving myself a HIGH for magnitude.

  World Forecast

More outbreaks by Peshewar. With number higher than 210, chance of 6 is

less for the next 24 hours.

  California Forecast

Watch the midline for more activity. Also, the quakes are coming up the

coast of Mexico. Watch Baja California Mexico.