Quakecast

07 December, 2011

World: 184

Calif: 396

Predictor Performance in last 24 hours: did not make a prediction

World Reality

The world number is dropping under 200. Yesterday, I noticed there were very few aftershocks to the 5's and I thought the number might even go lower. But this morning there are aftershocks starting up. However, we still have not had the 6. Last time the world number dropped to 155 before it hit. The quakes continue to come on the coast of Mexico. There was a 5 in Veracruz, Mexico.

California Reality

Lot's of 2's. This is good because it is dissipating pressure. But remember, there have been several 5's getting close.

World Forecast

Keep your eyes out for more 5's in Eastern New Guinea Red, Papua New Guinea. I don't think they will get the 6 because they have had a lot of activity. If the 6 does occur, I think it will be on the South America, Mexico fault line. Also, if the world number does not creep back up past 210 we will see the 6.

California Forecast

Watch for a three in Southern CA in the next 72 hours. There may be a 4 within 850 miles of Baja, California Mexico. I know this is a big area. I need to refine the hypothesis.

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About this blog / Disclaimer

This blog follows the predictions of earthquakes in California and around the world from my god-mother, Randi.

Randi has never taken a geology class. She has no formal training. But, everyday for the last six years she has observed earthquakes around the world. She has watched when they happen and where they happen. She believes that there are patterns to when large earthquakes occur. She uses these patterns to predict future quakes.

She uses only one source of information for her predictions: USGS.

Randi makes her predictions based on the data from the USGS website and her insight gained from observing world-wide earthquake activity. As a challenge, she tries to make predictions in 72 hour increments. Just like a weather forecast, she misses many times, as well as gets some earthquake forecasts correct.

Randi's main concern is California. She will discuss earthquake activity on the world level, but she will do her best to narrow down the activity to specific dates for California.

This blog is for fun. It is NOT scientific. Randi does not recommend anyone to take any specific action because of her predictions.

A note from Randi on how she predicts them:

I’ve kept my analysis real simple. Today there are 344 in California/Nevada, a low number but the world number is 270. To me that means California WILL NOT have a large earthquake today. If the number goes below 200 for the world and California/Nevada is less than 500 then I believe the BIG quake will occur there.

Earlier this week, I got nervous because the world number was 218 and California was below 500, but another quake happened elsewhere before the total number went below 200 and the aftershocks raised the total world number to 270. It is fascinating to watch because the big quakes happen when the world goes below 200...