World: 212

Calif: 368

Predictor Performance in last 24 hours: high

  World Reality

As predicted. The aftershocks kept the world number in the around 206

for 24 hours period. There were one 6 in Olongapo, Luzon, Philippines

which is 325 miles from a 4.8 quake in Iloilo City, Philippines. This

helps confirm the hypothesis.

There was also a 4.6 in Sombrerete, Zacatecas, Mexico. I mentioned the

chance of a 5 increasing along the coast of Mexico. It is slightly

inland, and smaller in scale but it is what I expected. The quakes are

moving up towards CA.

  California Reality

More 2's along the midline. Still have 24 hours for a 3 in the area.

  World Forecast

There will be aftershocks around the 5's keeping the world number in

the above 206 for the next 24 hours which does reduce the chance of a 6.

The quakes are moving up the coast of Mexico.

  California Forecast

There were two threes yesterday at the critical points. A 3.0 by

Petrolia, CA and a 3 by Malibu, California. In the next 72 hours we will

see a 3+ on the midline of California. I also, think in the next couple

of weeks we will see a larger quake by those two points.

World: 167

Calif: 361

Predictor Performance in last 24 hours: High

  World Reality

As predicted, there was a 6.4 in Papua New Guinea when the world number

was 155. I said the world number could drop as low as 150 before the 6+

earthquake occurs. It happened just before hitting the low mark. I

waited on pins and needles this Thanksgiving weekend.

This is significant because this tells us timing. I knew it would hit

before the world number dropped too low. I also said it would occur

within 850 miles of a previous 4.5. Well, it occurred within 850 miles

of a 5.0 in Jayapura, Papua, Indonesia on the previous Thursday and

within 501 miles of a 4.7 just 8 hours earlier in Madang, Papua New

Guinea. This tells us place. So, the quakecast is correct for time,

place and size.

I spent time this weekend on the USGS website. It is a wonderful site

with lots of data, but it doesn't track size of earthquake to the world

number. I ran every quake for the last ten years and know the data I

need to validate my hypothesis. I am calling the USGS today to see if

they will run the data for me. I've made a discovery. I searched and

search the databases and the world number is not tracked with magnitude

by the USGS. I now just have to validate it. Stay tuned.

  California Reality

I thought and thought about my forecast for California because it said

if the world number is below 200 and California is below 400, then the

larger quake can happen in CA. I thought this could be alarming to CA

residents. I felt bad. But, over the weekend, I realized the hypothesis

clearly states the larger quake will happen within 850 of a previous 4.5

in the preceding week. Guess what. The 6 did not happen in CA because

there was not a 4.5 the previous week. So, just because the world number

and the CA number are in range, does not mean the threat is greater. We

need to see a 4.5 in the previous week.

  World Forecast

There will be a 5 and possible 6 within 500 miles of Oaxaca, Mexico. If

the world number jumps up fast from aftershocks, the chance of the 6

will be less. But, we will see a 5 in the next 72 hours along the coast

of Mexico.

  California Forecast

Watch of a 5 by Baja California, Mexico. That will be a precursor to

larger quakes in CA in the next 72 hours. If it does not happen, CA will

continue with the outbreak of 2's and maybe a 3.

World: 169

Calif: 389

I normally take the weekends off, but in light of the low world number I

did a quick check.

Yesterday's prediction still holds - As predicted the world number

dipped by 10 without another 6+ earthquake, exactly as predicted, there

were only 5's and lower in the previous 24 hours. Now, the 6+ earthquake

can happen anytime. The world number may go down as low as 150 before it

occurs. This means that areas within 850 miles of a previous 4.5 quake

in the last week, needs to be on alert for at least a 6 or maybe even

larger. The lower the world number the higher the likelihood of a 7+.

Also, there was a 2.8 in San Juan Bautista, CA. I said there would be a

three on the midline in California. I got time, place and pretty close

to magnitude.

World: 179

Calif: 373

Predictor Performance in last 24 hours: Medium

(I am starting to grade myself tougher. I predicted a 6.2 for size, place and time but missed a 4 in California for size. I got place and time. See details below.) I'll be creating a rubric for a consistent grading system going forward.

  World Reality

The world number stayed above 200 as predicted for 24 hours. There was a 4.8 aftershock in Crete, Greece as predicted. There was NOT 5+ between Manipur, India and Hualien, Taiwan, instead the aftershock was in Crete.

But the bigger news is the validation of the hypothesis. It worked for two earthquakes for size, time, and place on totally different hemispheres.

The hypothesis says to predict when a 6+ has a likelihood of occurring: "If the world number is around 200, then the quake will be a 6+. If the world number is over 215, then the quake will be in the 5 range. The quake will happen within 850 miles of a 4.5."

(Note around 200 is defined as not more than 206.)

Let's look at the facts:

Case 1 - 6.2 in Hokkaido, Japan on Thursday, Nov. 24th.

World Number at time of quake - 206

Distance from previous 4.5+ in prior week - 523 miles

Supports the hypothesis. The world number dipped to near 200 and the

quake happened within 850 of a previous quake.

Case 2 - 5.1 in San Miguel, El Salvador on Thursday, Nov. 24th

World Number at time of quake - 208

Distance from previous 4.5+ in the prior week - 357

Now, both quakes happened the same day. It is important to note that the hypothesis states the 6+ will happen when the world number is in the 200 range, I've set the upper limit as 206. 5's can happen any time, but do tend to occur near a previous 4.5.

Just for fun let's look at another example from the same day.

Case 3 - 5.0 in Papua, Indonesia

World number at time of quake - 209

Distance from previous 4.5+ in the prior week - 343

Again, for the 6 to happen the world number needs to be near 200 within the range of +3%. It can be lower as well. Otherwise, we see 5's.

  California Reality

Missed prediction for size. There was NOT a 4+ in southern California. But in the 72 hours there was a 3.1 in Anza, CA. Correct for time and place. I also missed on a second three quake in the area. There were no additional threes between Anza, CA and Valley Acres, CA. Just a breakout of 2's.

However, I did ask you to watch the midline of the US. I predicted the activity is increasing. There was a 3.7 in Shawnee, Oklahoma which is less than 100 miles from the mid line. This is important because the midline goes through San Francisco, CA. The US is cracking in the middle. I've never seen it before and we are seeing weekly activity on the mid-line. This means watching the world number and CA's number as a predictor for timing and size is critical. I'll be fine-tuning the hypothesis, to validate the numbers for predicting California's quakes.

World Forecast

The world number is well below 200 and will dip by another at least another 10 before a larger quake occurs. It may go down as low as 150. This means that areas within 850 miles of a previous 4.5 quake in the last week, needs to be on alert for at least a 6 or maybe even larger.

  California Forecast

Watch the midline. There is significant smaller activity in Southern California. There will be a three near the mid line. However, the number for a large quake in CA is in range. The hypothesis for California is "If the world number is below 200 and California is below 400, then a larger quake may happen in the state." I hope it's not true and I'll need to refine this hypothesis. But at this point, that is the hypothesis. To make my California friends more comfortable, in the past 6 years, the larger quakes happen outside the US.

A little out of character...

I normally never check status during the day ... but today I did and

we've already had the 6 I predicted! There was a 6.2 in Trinidad,

Bolivia. I checked to see how far it was from a 5 but I got the

distance wrong.... I had NO idea how big these countries are... I said

300 miles but it's 1700 miles. In my mind, that is the distance I was

thinking, I just had scale all wrong.... I'll update officially

tomorrow.

World: 202

Calif: 360

Predictor Performance in last 24 hours: High

World number is in the 200 territory. This means the probability of a 6+

is likely in the next 48 hours. The world number will be dropping in

the next 24 hours because there were few aftershocks yesterday. When

the world number drops below 200, there typically is a large earthquake

to raise it again. We just saw this last month, remember the Turkey

earthquake. So, hold on. The world number can drop as low as 180 before

the large earthquake happens. Also, California's number is below 400.

This is low, I believe. California also is more prone to larger

earthquakes when it's number is below 400 and the world number is below

200. In the last couple of years, when this scenario happens, typically

the larger quakes happen outside the US. This raises the world number

and I believe has protected California. I'd love to have time to do

some analysis and not just use my memory but I only spend 7 minutes a

day to predict world earthquakes.

  World Reality

As predicted, the world number dropped and is in the 200 range. There

was not an increase of activity near Pesawar because Turkey is still

active with a 4.6.

  California Reality

Predication correct for Time, place and magnitude. As predicted, there

was a series of little quakes all under 3 on the midline of the US in

the 24 hours predicted. Years ago, I never saw even little earthquakes

by the midline. Now, just as I said, there were four in the 24 hour time

period. A 1.1 in Tennessee, a 2.2 in Arkansas a 2.7 in Shawnee, Oklahoma

and even one in Steele, MO.

Baja, California, Mexico is getting more active with 3's. The 4+ did

not happen in the first 24 hours. The prediction is for 72 hours. Watch

for the next 48 hours.

  World Forecast

The world number is getting in the 200 range. When the number dips below

200 there is a large earthquake to bring it back up. In the next week,

we will either have a series of 5's or a 6+. The larger earthquake, a

6+, will happen within 300 miles of 5. The probability of a 7 is

greater when the world number is under 200. So be on alert.

  California Forecast

Yesterday's forecast still holds for 48 hours. Baja, California, Mexico

is getting more active with 3's. Watch for a 4+ in the next 48 hours in

the southern California region.

World: 209

Calif: 367

Predictor Performance in last 24 hours: High (almost scary how I nailed it!)

Just as some background to my followers, I spend 7 minutes a day predicting earthquakes worldwide. I wish I could spend more time but I have a business to run and I am writing a memoir as well. When I watch weather forecasters, I am a little envious because they get to spend so much time on a small portion of area. I predict for the world. Because I am a working mom, I only give myself 7 minutes a day to do this. I hope one day, I can teach others what to look for and they can narrow down the QUAKECAST for their area.

This blog specializes in identifying where, when and how big a quake will be. I measure myself based on the accuracy of the forecast. But, sometimes I can also predict when there will not be an earthquake. This weekend, I knew there would not be a 7+ anywhere in the world. I got it

right.

This week will be different. The world number dropped, stay tuned.

  World Reality

I predicted accurately that there would not be a 7+ quake in the next 48 hours, worldwide. This is significant because I want to develop a simple dash board on the blog. It will show regions when the chance of an earthquake is high, medium and low.

 There was a be a continuation of aftershocks in the 4 - 5 magnitude range, occurring in regions that have had a 5+ as predicted. I even said there is a small chance of a 6+ if the aftershocks slow down but since they didn't there was not one 6 during the prediction period. Instead lots of 5's where others already happened, just like predicted. There was a 5.0 and 5.2 near New Guinea, plus many others.

 I also spent last week talking about the earthquakes moving east of Turkey. I tried to describe where, I don't have a world map of countries so I said in the region of between Kuwait and Peshawar. Now, I can't find Peshwar on the map but, the earthquake did happen exactly where I thought it would. There was a 4.7 in Birjand, Iran. Eventually, when I have time, I'll get a Google map, but right now, I only have 7 minutes. In addition to never talking a geology class, I also never studied

geography. I know it shows, but I've decided not to be ashamed. You'll see me learn as time goes on. Please be patient.

  California Reality

Midline activity is increasing but not at the 4+ level yet. There was a 3.7 in Markleeville, CA. I got timing and place but missed magnitude. Also, the midline activity picked up again in Virginia with a 2.1.

  World Forecast

The world number is getting in the 200 range. When the number dips below 200 there is a large earthquake to bring it back up. In the next week, we will either have a series of 6's or a 7. India is getting active. I will be watching this region. There was a 5.9 in Manipur, India. Interesting because it is in the same region of Peshwar, just saw it on the USGS map. I predict increased activity near Peshwar, near that fault line.

  California Forecast

Baja, California, Mexico is getting more active with 3's. Watch for a 4+ in the next 72 hours.

 In the next 24 hours only little quakes under 3 will be on the midline.

World: 278

Calif: 364

Predictor Performance in last 24 hours: High

  World Reality

The outbreak of aftershocks in south America is well underway. There was

a 5.7 in Ecuador, a 5.2 in Guatemala, a 5.6 in the north east Pacific

Ocean and a 4.5 near Verecuz, Mexico. When I refer to south America I

include Mexico, I don't know if that is technically correct. Predication

correct for time, place, and size.

 As predicted, since the outbreak of 5's happened we did not have the 6

in the South American region.

 On the other side of the globe, I've been watching the area around

India. I said the quakes in Turkey will be moving east. There was a 4.7

in Khorugh, Tajikistan.

  California Reality

As predicted there was a 3.2 in The Geysers, CA. This is East of Point

Arena, just like I said it would be. Predication correct for Time,

Place, Size.

  World Forecast

With the world number at 278, we will not have a 7+ quake in the next 48

hours, worldwide. This holds until Sunday morning. There will be a

continuation of aftershocks in the 4 - 5 magnitude range, occurring in

regions that have had a 5+. There is a small chance of a 6+ if the

aftershocks slow down.

  California Forecast

Watch the midline in the US for a 4+ in the next 72 hours. It might not

be in California.

World: 249

Calif: 379

Predictor Performance in last 24 hours: Medium

  World Reality

There was not a 4+ between Kuwait and Peshawar, because the activity is

still occurring in Turkey. There were two 4.5+ earthquakes there,

instead. I will be watching for trends moving east.

  California Reality

Forecast correct. There was a 3.0 in Tres Pinos, California. There was a

3.4 in Carago.

 Forecast correct. California number increased from small 2+ earthquakes

in southern region. This is significant because I knew the big one was

not happening in that time frame

  World Forecast

In the next 72 hours, there will a break out of aftershocks in south

America. There is also an increased risk of a 6+ along the coast of

Mexico, if the outbreak of aftershocks does not occur. Most vulnerable

area is Baja, California. Based on the world number at 249, the chance

of a 7+ is low for Mexico in the next 72 hours.

  California Forecast

There will be a 3+ in northern California in the next 72 hours east of

Point Arena.

World: 231

Calif: 366

Predictor Performance in last 24 hours: Medium

  World Reality

The world number did not drop below 200 because there was a an outbreak

of 5's. This also is the reason a 7+ was not seen. Outbreaks of 5's are

good news. They slowed down for a while but came back yesterday. The 5

near Turkey is north west of where I thought we'd see the 4. I have to

find a better way to describe the areas where I believe the quakes are

occurring.

  California Reality

Prediction realized for place and time. Magnitude off. There were two

earthquakes by the midline, both in Central California. A 3.4 in

Cartago and a 3.2 in Toms Place.

 There was 3+ between Riverside, California and San Francisco. The one in

Cartago is between Riverside and San Francisco, on the longitude axis.

  World Forecast

In the next 72 hours, there will be a 4+ between Kuwait and Peshawar.

Again, I need to develop a map that will show the area I am referring

to.

  California Forecast

In the next 72 hours, there will be a 3+ between Riverside, California

and San Francisco.

 In the next 24 hours there will be increased activity in Southern

California with 2 - 3 quakes. I'll be watching if by tomorrow, I think

larger ones may happen.

World: 211

Calif: 334

Predictor Performance in last 24 hours: High

  World Reality

As predicted, There was a 5.0 north of Chile and Baja, Mexico in the 72

hours forecasted. It was in Venezuela, a little to the east but still

between the two locations.

 My "going out on a bigger limb" also proved true. There was a 6.3 in

Indonesia. I said there would be a 6+ in Asia or Australia if there was

not a 5+ in either India or Saudi Arabia in the 72 hours. There wasn't

one in India or Saudi Arabia and the bigger one did happen.

  California Reality

Prediction unrealized. There was not a 4+ on the midline. I still think

it is just a matter of time.

 Predication happened. There was a 3.0 in Riverside, California, slightly

lower than the 3+ projected. But, there were two 3.0's. The other one

was in Pine Valley, California.

  World Forecast

In the next 72 hours the world number will drop below 200, if a larger

quake does not happen. It is when the world number approaches 200 that

we see quakes of 7+. It can go either way. We will either see the 7+ or

the world number will drop. The aftershocks are slowing down and a

large quake is of higher probability. I predict in the next 24 hours we

will just see the world number drop. I need to get a world map because I

see where we may get some fours around Quetta and Multan. I don't know

country names....

  California Forecast

In the next 72 hours, there will be a 4+ on the midline. It might not be

in California, it may be east. There was a 3.7 in Montana, very unusual.

 In the next 72 hours, there will be a 3+ between Riverside, California

and San Francisco. I am trying to really narrow down predictions....

World: 261
Calif: 379
Predictor Performance in last 24 hours:  HIGH

  World Reality
Prediction correct. The world number will continues to be well above
220. But the bigger news is there was a 5.2 earthquake in Chile as
predicted. Forecast for Timing, location and size: all correct!

  California Reality
In the first 24 hours there was not a 4+ by the midline. I've predicted
it would happen in 72 hours.  We will see if it happens this weekend.

  World Forecast
There will be another 5+ going north of Chile and Baja, Mexico in the
next 72 hours.
 Going out on a bigger limb, there will be a 5+ in either India or Saudi
Arabia in the 72 hours. If that doesn't happen then there will be a 6+
in Asia or Australia.

  California Forecast
In the next 48 hours there will be a 4+ on the midline. It might not be
in California, it may be east.
 There will be a 3+ in Southern California in the next 48 hours.

World: 255

Calif: 351

Predictor Performance in last 24 hours: HIGH, both earthquakes

predicted yesterday happened!!!!

  World Reality

As predicted yesterday, larger quakes will produced more after quakes

keeping the world number over 220.

 As predicted yesterday, there was 5.6 aftershock in Turkey. I said it

would be 3+. I knew it would be higher, but didn't want to overestimate

it. I am still perfecting this technique. This is an example of a

correct forecast for location and timing and magnitude.

  California Reality

As predicted yesterday, the midline activity moving west. There was a

4.0 off the coast of California right be the midline. Again, this is an

example of a correct forecast for location and timing and magnitude.

  World Forecast

The world number will continue to be well above 220 in the next 72

hours. There will be a 5+ earthquake between Chile and Baja, Mexico in

the next 72 hours.

  California Forecast

There will be a 4+ by the midline. It might not be in California. It

will be anywhere in the US by the midline. However, I am seeing a

tendency for the midline activity to be moving west. Yesterday's

earthquake in the ocean is an example. My forecast holds for the next 72

hours that there will be a 4+ on the midline.

World: 259
Calif: 368

  World Forecast

Larger quakes will produce more after quakes keeping the world number

over 220 for the next 72 hours. But, most of the aftershocks are in
Alaska and US. There seems to be a shift to North America. In the next
24 hours, more aftershocks on the US side of the ring of fire.
 There will be a 3+ aftershock in Turkey.

  World Reality
As predicted yesterday, world number well above 220.

  California Forecast
Watch for midline activity moving west.  There was a 4.0 in Eureka
Nevada. I believe this is to balance out the Oklahoma quake.  I forecast
another 4+ around the midline of the US in the next 72 hours. It can be
anywhere in the US around the midline.

  California Reality
No specific forecast made yesterday for updating.


Warning signs:

Two signs that a 8+ quake is coming to California are:
1. A 5+ quake either in Baja California, Mexico or off the coast of
northern California.
2. a 4+ quake near San Francisco.
 Remember, when the world number dips below or around 200 and California
is under 500 the chance for the larger quakes exist and typically happen
within 48 hours. It can take 6 months to two years for the world number

to dip. So just because one of the above signs happens does NOT mean the
big quake is coming. We need the total world number and California
number to be in sync as well.

Know what?  I decided to start again. I knew about the Turkey earthquake
and it just scared me.  But, now that we've had a 5.6 in Oklahoma, I
think it is getting too close to California for me to stop.

World: 253
Calif: 348

Larger quakes will produce more after quakes keeping the world number
over 220 for the next 72 hours.  There is a pattern of the larger quakes
(6+) to happen near a 3 or 4 quake from the previous week. Same thing
happened in Oklahoma, those are prequakes.

For California, the big quake is coming, I predict within 5 years but
will use this forum to narrow down the timeline to one week. The reason
I know it is coming is because of the midline activity in the US. It
started in Virginia and is making its way west. Oklahoma is a quake on
the mid line. Again, if you draw the line out to the Pacific ocean, you
intersect San Francisco. It is just a matter of when. Two signs that a
8+ quake is coming to California are:

  1. A 5+ quake either in Baja California, Mexico or off the coast of
       northern California.
  2. a 4+ quake near San Francisco.

Remember, when the world number dips below or around 200 and California
is under 500 the chance for the larger quakes exist and typically happen
within 48 hours. It can take 6 months to two years for the world number
to dip, now that the activity level is rising. Remember when I kept
saying this summer, the activity level was unusually low.  Now you see
what I am talking about because we've been having an outbreak of 5+
quakes world wide.