World: 167

Calif: 361

Predictor Performance in last 24 hours: High

  World Reality

As predicted, there was a 6.4 in Papua New Guinea when the world number

was 155. I said the world number could drop as low as 150 before the 6+

earthquake occurs. It happened just before hitting the low mark. I

waited on pins and needles this Thanksgiving weekend.

This is significant because this tells us timing. I knew it would hit

before the world number dropped too low. I also said it would occur

within 850 miles of a previous 4.5. Well, it occurred within 850 miles

of a 5.0 in Jayapura, Papua, Indonesia on the previous Thursday and

within 501 miles of a 4.7 just 8 hours earlier in Madang, Papua New

Guinea. This tells us place. So, the quakecast is correct for time,

place and size.

I spent time this weekend on the USGS website. It is a wonderful site

with lots of data, but it doesn't track size of earthquake to the world

number. I ran every quake for the last ten years and know the data I

need to validate my hypothesis. I am calling the USGS today to see if

they will run the data for me. I've made a discovery. I searched and

search the databases and the world number is not tracked with magnitude

by the USGS. I now just have to validate it. Stay tuned.

  California Reality

I thought and thought about my forecast for California because it said

if the world number is below 200 and California is below 400, then the

larger quake can happen in CA. I thought this could be alarming to CA

residents. I felt bad. But, over the weekend, I realized the hypothesis

clearly states the larger quake will happen within 850 of a previous 4.5

in the preceding week. Guess what. The 6 did not happen in CA because

there was not a 4.5 the previous week. So, just because the world number

and the CA number are in range, does not mean the threat is greater. We

need to see a 4.5 in the previous week.

  World Forecast

There will be a 5 and possible 6 within 500 miles of Oaxaca, Mexico. If

the world number jumps up fast from aftershocks, the chance of the 6

will be less. But, we will see a 5 in the next 72 hours along the coast

of Mexico.

  California Forecast

Watch of a 5 by Baja California, Mexico. That will be a precursor to

larger quakes in CA in the next 72 hours. If it does not happen, CA will

continue with the outbreak of 2's and maybe a 3.