World: 255

Calif: 446

Predictor Performance in last 24 hours: HIGH

  World Reality 

The hypotheses is working. No big quakes around the world. The number is 255. Lot’s of 5’s but no sixes. 

  

  California Reality 

As quakecasted no 5+ in California in the last 24 hours. There was a 4.2 near Baja Mexico. This is a key spot to start a larger quake trend. There was also a 4.3 on Saturday by Petrolia, CA. I’ve talked of this before – how these two quakes occur near each other and then larger quakes may happen in CA. 

  World Forecast 

The world number is 255. We will see 5’s and smaller until the number decreases to the 210 range.

  California Forecast 

California is in the 450 range.  With the 4+ quakes happening in both Petrolia and Baja, there may be a 4+ in CA in the next 48 hours.  Since, I’ve been testing the CA number it may be a 5+. I am not sure if CA’s number is 425 or 450 as the upper limit for larger quakes.  We are right on the line. So, a 5+ quake can happen within 250 miles of a previous 3. I do not believe it will be a 6+ because the world number is high. I’ve tested this before and it held.  

World: 240

Calif: 434

Predictor Performance in last 24 hours: HIGH, it is amazing because I can quakecast when the big ones will hit and when they won’t. The hypothesis is working for both the world and CA!!!!!!!!!

No big quakes yesterday and the number were higher than 200 and 400.  Actually, the world number is pretty high.  We haven’t had a 6 since Feb. 14^th. Typically there is a 6 at least once a week, even twice. So, while the world number indicates there should be no 6+ in the next day, I wonder if the hypothesis needs to include a a factor for days between 6+. We will see.

  World Reality 

The hypotheses is working. We have enough smaller shakes to offset the large quake and the magic number seems to be holding at around 211.

  California Reality 

California is going crazy with lots of smaller shakes.  I am not sure if the key number for CA is 450 so there may be a 4+ but with the world number at 240, I do not think even a 5+ will hit CA in the next 24 hours.

  World Forecast 

The world number is 240. We will see 5 and smaller until the number decreases to the 210 range.

  California Forecast 

California is in the 430 – 450 range.   I am thinking the the magic CA number may be 425  which would put California  in the clear to avoid the larger quakes. I am still testing the range. Next 24 hours no large quake in the 6+ range. 

World: 206

Calif: 410

It’s amazing because I may have nailed the numbers. No big quakes yesterday and the number were higher than 200 and 400.  Now there is a range of 10% so for this weekend the chance of the 6+ is high.  Watch for areas near a previous 5.  I’ll be back from vacation next Tuesday.  Enjoy!

World: 200

Calif: 397

We are right at the cusp of maybe having a large quake. The key numbers are 200 – 210 for the world and 400 – 425 for CA. Let’s see if we get more smaller shakes. If not, the 6+ will be here. 

I am on vacation this week so my quakecasts are brief.

Note from David: Sorry for the weird postings of these, I am on vacation this week and also happen to be sick...

World: 214

Calif: 441 

Absolutely fascinating!!!  They hypothesis is working for both the world and California. There were NO 6+’s yesterday. Notice the two key numbers, both above range.

I am on vacation this week, but will keep checking.  I also have been graphing the results.  It’s fascinating to see the historically data and when the quakes hit. 

Note from David: Sorry this is one day late... I was travelling yesterday with no access to internet.

World: 211

Calif: 445 

Predictor Performance in last 24 hours: HIGH, it is amazing because I can quakecast when the big ones will hit and when they won’t. The hypothesis is working for both the world and CA!!!!!!!!!

  World Reality 

World number stayed above 200 during the weekend. No big quake. This is amazing. The hypotheses is working. We have enough smaller shakes to offset the large quake and the magic number seems to be holding at around 211.

  California Reality 

California went crazy this weekend with lots of smaller shakes. It got up to 459 on Sunday. This is well above the 450 key number and there were NO large quakes. As I quakecasted on Friday, the smaller quakes will avoid the big one and it WORKED.

  

  World Forecast 

The world number is 211. Right on the border.  If it goes up we will avoid the 6+. If it goes down or stays where it is expect a 6+ in areas near a previous 5.

  California Forecast

California is in the 400 – 450 range.  If this continues we will avoid the larger quake. However, right now the world number is right on the line of the magic 211 number  and California is still under 450. So  there is a possibility of a larger quake. However, I am thinking the the magic CA number may be 425  which would put California  in the clear to avoid the larger quakes. I am still testing the range. Therefore, areas near previous 3’s need to be on alert for a 5+.

World: 198

Calif: 439 

Predictor Performance in last 24 hours: HIGH

  World Reality

World number dropped below 200. So far no 6 quake.

  California Reality 

California experienced a lot more shaking of the smaller quakes. The number grow significantly yesterday.  I quakecasted that we’d need to see lots of smaller quakes to avoid a bigger one and so far it is working. However, the numbers are still in range for a larger quake.  

  World Forecast

The world number is 198. Expect a 6+ in areas near a previous 5+ unless smaller shakes bring the world number above 210. The chance of a 6 this weekend is high.

I am still concerned about Mexico for the larger quake this weekend. I’d put the country on orange alert until the world number goes above 215.

  California Forecast

California is inching back up to 450 territory. If this continues we will avoid the larger quake. However, right now the world number is under 200 and California is still under 450. The magic CA number may be 400, and California is in the clear to avoid the larger quakes, but I am still testing the range. Therefore, areas near previous 3’s need to be on alert for a 5+. It may even be a 6+ if we see a 3+ in northern Mexico. 

World: 210

Calif: 406 

Predictor Performance in last 24 hours: HIGH

  World Reality 

The world number was high yesterday and we did not see another 6. Now it is coming down and depending on which direction it heads can mean a bigger quake today.

  California Reality

Well, the 3+ are here.  There was a 3.5 in the San Fransico Bay area. This is where I am concerned for the larger quake. This could be a pre-quake.  With the CA number above 400 we did not see any bigger quakes. But, I think the magic number for CA is 450. It is under test. So far the 400 number is holding up to predict the lack of larger quakes. Don’t hold on to it though. I think we could still see a larger quake up to 450.

Also, notice how the quakes are moving south. 

  World Forecast 

The world number is 210. This is a border line number.  If it drops we can see a 6+ in areas near a previous 5+.  Alert needs to be on an orange level. Naturally, this applies to the 5+ quake in CA.  

  California Forecast 

California is in 400 territory. This means the state is prone to larger quakes. Watch the San Andréus fault line for a larger quake. We had a 3.5 yesterday in the San Francisco area. If the CA number does not go about 450 we may see the 6+ in the next week. Hopefully, we see a lot more smaller shaking and avoid the larger quake. For the next 72 hours areas near previous 3+ need to be on alert for possible 5+.  This naturally includes the 6. California needs to be on alert for a possible 6+ in the next 6 days. If the world number jumps high it may be avoided. But, it doesn’t look that way.

World: 195 (at time of the 6.0 off the coast of Oregon)

Calif: currently 428 (it was lower at time of Oregon quake)

Predictor Performance in last 24 hours: HIGH

  World Reality

There was a 6.0 in Coos Bay, Oregon which is 276 miles from the 5+ earthquake yesterday in California. I said the world number was in range for a 6, and it hit. I also said California is shaking up. This is a precursor to the larger quake coming. Quakecast is correct for time, place and size.

5.6 in Northern California

As quakecasted, there has been a 4+ earthquake in Northern California. It was a 5.6 located 5mi (9km) from Weitchpec, CA.

World: 202

Calif: 393

Predictor Performance in last 24 hours:

  World Reality 

When the world number was up over 200 this weekend there were NO 6+’s. It’s been a while since the world number went up that high, so I haven’t been able to test the hypothesis. Guess what? It worked. Now, the world number is back in larger quake range.

Also, remember I said to watch near Panama.  Well there was a 5.8 in Costa Rica. This is less than 250 miles from Panama.

  California Reality 

The 4’s have come to California. It did happen as I said after a larger quake hit near Petrolia. California will have some bigger quakes this month…

  World Forecast 

The larger quakes are going to move up the Mexico coastline this week.  Watch for Santa Rossilina, Mexico.  Once we get one mid mexico, it will continue up towards California.

  California Forecast 

The 3+ hit Petrolia last Thursday and started the movement in California, I’ve been mentioning. It’s here.  There was a 4.3 near Sacramento. The key number to watch for Califoria is 400. Right now California’s number is under 400 so it is prime for a larger quake. It will most probably be in the 4+ range.  We may hit a 5+. I am waiting for a 4+ in the southern area and then we will see a larger one 6+ in the mid section. I am concerned about San Francisco. So, for the next 72 hours, watch for 3+ and a possible 4+ near anyplace a 3+ happened within 300 miles.

World Number: 222

California Number:399

Yeah! The world number finally went significantly above 211.  There should be no 6+ in the next 24 hours.  I’ll keep my eye posted on the number. It’s been a while that it’s been this high. 

World: 211

Calif: 403

All I want to say is there was on MSNBC website the article says:

A strong earthquake in the central Philippines killed at least 13 people Monday as it destroyed buildings and triggered landslides that buried dozens of houses, trapping residents. At least 29 people were missing. The 6.8-magnitude quake, in a narrow strait just off Negros Island, caused a landslide in Guihulngan, a city of about 180,000 people in Negros Oriental province. As many as 30 houses were buried and at least 29 people were missing, Mayor Ernesto Reyes said. "Their situation is bad because if you are covered by landslide for one hour, two hours, how can you breathe?" he said. "But we just hope for the best, that there are still survivors."

My weekend quakecast said if the world number is around 210 any area within 850 miles of a previous 5 needs to be on alert. This quake happened within 200 miles of a previous 5.

Enough said. My heart and prayers go out to the people of the Phillippines.

World: 218

Calif: 429

Predictor Performance in last 24 hours: High, because the hypothesis is working.

  World Reality

When the world number hovers around 206, I quakecasted yesterday there is a chance of a 6+ within 850 miles of a previous 5. Well there was a 7.1 in Efate, Vanuatu which is 192 miles from a previous 5! I am surprised by the size of the quake because the world number is higher than I expected for it to happen. But still, I bet the people there would have appreciated a warning.

  California Reality

As quakecasted the earthquakes maxed out in the 3 range. It is shaking a lot now. More than the last couple of months. Activity is picking up.

  World Quakecast

Weekend is here! I'll try to go 72 hours out but with the world number around 218, it could go higher reducing the chance of the large quake. Typically, the 6+ do not happen unless the world number is under 206. So, watch the world number if it is around 210 areas 850 miles from a previous 5 need to be on alert.

  California Quakecast

Until we see the 4+, quakes in CA will max out in the 3 range. The 4+ quake will be either in the Pacific in the mid section of the state or Petrolia or Baja. Those events will trigger the bigger quake. This quake cast is for 72 hours. I'll check to see progress tomorrow.

World: 213

Calif: 436

Predictor Performance in last 24 hours: High, because the hypothesis is working.

  World Reality

There were no 6+ quakes. There was a 4.6 in San Salvador, El Salvador which is about 650 miles from Panama. The quakes are closing in on the region.

  California Reality

There was a 3.5 in Wells, NV. The quakes are moving west even faster than I thought. There were also a couple of 3+. The size of the quakes in CA are growing. I said the quakes in CA would max out in the 3 range.

  World Quakecast

The world number is increasing the further it gets from 203 the likelihood of a 6+ decreases. Today, it can go in either direction. So, areas near previous 5's still need to be on alert.

  California Quakecast

Watch the midline. The quakes are starting to move west. It hit Nevada early today and will continue moving west. Until we see the 4+, quakes in CA will max out in the 3 range. The 4+ quake will be either in the Pacific in the mid section of the state or Petrolia or Baja. Those events will trigger the bigger quake. This quake cast is for 24 hours. I'll check to see progress tomorrow.

World: 191

Calif: 440

Predictor Performance in last 24 hours: High, I knew there would be no major activity.

  World Reality

World number is hanging around the 200 mark as predicted. There were no 6+ quakes.

  California Reality

Quakecast correct for knowing there would be no large quakes in CA the previous day. The point here is that there can be a warning system. People should always be on their guard, but there are times the probability of a larger quake exists. Yesterday was not one of them.

  World Quakecast

There was a 3.2 in Manitoba, Canada. It is way north of the US midline I keep talking about but it is west of yesterday's 3.2 in Virginia. These quakes may be tied together and I quakecast additional activity on the US midline in the next 100 hours.

World number will hang around below 200 in the next 24 hours until a 6+ happens within 100 hours. Area's near previous 5's need to be on alert for the 6+.

Area's of particular concern:

• Panama
• Taiwan

  California Quakecast

Watch the midline. The 3.2 in Virginia will start to move west. It hit very north in Canada yesterday but will continue moving west. Until we see the 4+, quakes in CA will max out in the 3 range. The 4+ quake will be either in the Pacific in the mid section of the state or Petrolia or Baja. Those events will trigger the bigger quake. This quake cast is for 24 hours. I'll check to see progress tomorrow.