Quakecast

20 February, 2012

Note from David: Sorry this is one day late... I was travelling yesterday with no access to internet.

World: 211

Calif: 445

Predictor Performance in last 24 hours: HIGH, it is amazing because I can quakecast when the big ones will hit and when they won’t. The hypothesis is working for both the world and CA!!!!!!!!!

World Reality

World number stayed above 200 during the weekend. No big quake. This is amazing. The hypotheses is working. We have enough smaller shakes to offset the large quake and the magic number seems to be holding at around 211.

California Reality

California went crazy this weekend with lots of smaller shakes. It got up to 459 on Sunday. This is well above the 450 key number and there were NO large quakes. As I quakecasted on Friday, the smaller quakes will avoid the big one and it WORKED.

World Forecast

The world number is 211. Right on the border. If it goes up we will avoid the 6+. If it goes down or stays where it is expect a 6+ in areas near a previous 5.

California Forecast

California is in the 400 – 450 range. If this continues we will avoid the larger quake. However, right now the world number is right on the line of the magic 211 number and California is still under 450. So there is a possibility of a larger quake. However, I am thinking the the magic CA number may be 425 which would put California in the clear to avoid the larger quakes. I am still testing the range. Therefore, areas near previous 3’s need to be on alert for a 5+.

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About this blog / Disclaimer

This blog follows the predictions of earthquakes in California and around the world from my god-mother, Randi.

Randi has never taken a geology class. She has no formal training. But, everyday for the last six years she has observed earthquakes around the world. She has watched when they happen and where they happen. She believes that there are patterns to when large earthquakes occur. She uses these patterns to predict future quakes.

She uses only one source of information for her predictions: USGS.

Randi makes her predictions based on the data from the USGS website and her insight gained from observing world-wide earthquake activity. As a challenge, she tries to make predictions in 72 hour increments. Just like a weather forecast, she misses many times, as well as gets some earthquake forecasts correct.

Randi's main concern is California. She will discuss earthquake activity on the world level, but she will do her best to narrow down the activity to specific dates for California.

This blog is for fun. It is NOT scientific. Randi does not recommend anyone to take any specific action because of her predictions.

A note from Randi on how she predicts them:

I’ve kept my analysis real simple. Today there are 344 in California/Nevada, a low number but the world number is 270. To me that means California WILL NOT have a large earthquake today. If the number goes below 200 for the world and California/Nevada is less than 500 then I believe the BIG quake will occur there.

Earlier this week, I got nervous because the world number was 218 and California was below 500, but another quake happened elsewhere before the total number went below 200 and the aftershocks raised the total world number to 270. It is fascinating to watch because the big quakes happen when the world goes below 200...