21 November, 2011


World: 209
Calif: 367
Predictor Performance in last 24 hours: High (almost scary how I nailed it!)


Just as some background to my followers, I spend 7 minutes a day predicting earthquakes worldwide. I wish I could spend more time but I have a business to run and I am writing a memoir as well. When I watch weather forecasters, I am a little envious because they get to spend so much time on a small portion of area. I predict for the world. Because I am a working mom, I only give myself 7 minutes a day to do this. I hope one day, I can teach others what to look for and they can narrow down the QUAKECAST for their area.

This blog specializes in identifying where, when and how big a quake will be. I measure myself based on the accuracy of the forecast. But, sometimes I can also predict when there will not be an earthquake. This weekend, I knew there would not be a 7+ anywhere in the world. I got it
right.

This week will be different. The world number dropped, stay tuned.


  World Reality
I predicted accurately that there would not be a 7+ quake in the next 48 hours, worldwide. This is significant because I want to develop a simple dash board on the blog. It will show regions when the chance of an earthquake is high, medium and low.

 There was a be a continuation of aftershocks in the 4 - 5 magnitude range, occurring in regions that have had a 5+ as predicted. I even said there is a small chance of a 6+ if the aftershocks slow down but since they didn't there was not one 6 during the prediction period. Instead lots of 5's where others already happened, just like predicted. There was a 5.0 and 5.2 near New Guinea, plus many others.

 I also spent last week talking about the earthquakes moving east of Turkey. I tried to describe where, I don't have a world map of countries so I said in the region of between Kuwait and Peshawar. Now, I can't find Peshwar on the map but, the earthquake did happen exactly where I thought it would. There was a 4.7 in Birjand, Iran. Eventually, when I have time, I'll get a Google map, but right now, I only have 7 minutes. In addition to never talking a geology class, I also never studied
geography. I know it shows, but I've decided not to be ashamed. You'll see me learn as time goes on. Please be patient.

  California Reality
Midline activity is increasing but not at the 4+ level yet. There was a 3.7 in Markleeville, CA. I got timing and place but missed magnitude. Also, the midline activity picked up again in Virginia with a 2.1.

  World Forecast
The world number is getting in the 200 range. When the number dips below 200 there is a large earthquake to bring it back up. In the next week, we will either have a series of 6's or a 7. India is getting active. I will be watching this region. There was a 5.9 in Manipur, India. Interesting because it is in the same region of Peshwar, just saw it on the USGS map. I predict increased activity near Peshwar, near that fault line.

  California Forecast
Baja, California, Mexico is getting more active with 3's. Watch for a 4+ in the next 72 hours.

 In the next 24 hours only little quakes under 3 will be on the midline.

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