Quakecast

21 December, 2011

World: 193

Calif: 395

Predictor Performance in last 24 hours: Medium

World Reality

World number is creeping back up to 200 without the 6+. There have been several 5.5 - 5.8's but no six. I knew the world number would go higher with the aftershocks. I predicted may hit 200 without the 6. But, don't feel to secure. The world number is still low...

California Reality

Correct on lots more twos and no quakes greater than a 3.9. However, there was not a 3+ in Northern California. It happened in over 200 miles off the coast of Oregon. I think it is key to know when the big quakes are NOT coming. This will be used eventually for the quakecasttoday predictor so people know when to really have their guard up!

World Forecast

I am still surprised by the lack of the 6. But I do see how there are LOTS of aftershocks. The six is still a reality until we hit 206 for the world number. Argentina needs to be on alert.

California Forecast

In the next 24 hours largest quake will be a 3.5, if at all. Area of concern is Sacramento. Lot's and lot's more two's.

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About this blog / Disclaimer

This blog follows the predictions of earthquakes in California and around the world from my god-mother, Randi.

Randi has never taken a geology class. She has no formal training. But, everyday for the last six years she has observed earthquakes around the world. She has watched when they happen and where they happen. She believes that there are patterns to when large earthquakes occur. She uses these patterns to predict future quakes.

She uses only one source of information for her predictions: USGS.

Randi makes her predictions based on the data from the USGS website and her insight gained from observing world-wide earthquake activity. As a challenge, she tries to make predictions in 72 hour increments. Just like a weather forecast, she misses many times, as well as gets some earthquake forecasts correct.

Randi's main concern is California. She will discuss earthquake activity on the world level, but she will do her best to narrow down the activity to specific dates for California.

This blog is for fun. It is NOT scientific. Randi does not recommend anyone to take any specific action because of her predictions.

A note from Randi on how she predicts them:

I’ve kept my analysis real simple. Today there are 344 in California/Nevada, a low number but the world number is 270. To me that means California WILL NOT have a large earthquake today. If the number goes below 200 for the world and California/Nevada is less than 500 then I believe the BIG quake will occur there.

Earlier this week, I got nervous because the world number was 218 and California was below 500, but another quake happened elsewhere before the total number went below 200 and the aftershocks raised the total world number to 270. It is fascinating to watch because the big quakes happen when the world goes below 200...