Quakecast

14 December, 2011

World: 172

Calif: 370

Predictor Performance in last 24 hours: High, predicted a 7

World Reality

Well, like I said yesterday if the 5's did not break out and the world number did not go above 200 we would have a 7. Guess what! The world number is 172 and there was a 7.1 in New Guinea, PNG which is within 850 miles of a 5.1 earlier in the week in Papa New Guinea. This is correct for size, place and time. Now, I said yesterday, I was concerned about the Philippines. I knew it would happen on that side of the world and not South America, Mexico region. This is the first 7 since I started documenting the process. I think I am seeing conditions that are ripe for when the 7 hits. I wish I could run the historic data, but the USGS website tracks data incongruent with how the hypothesis works. The good news is they have the data. It just will be laborious to input every quake and analyze it. So, hang in as you watch the data get tracked on a go-forward basis. One day, when I am not busy making a living, I'll input the data myself.

California Reality

I still have 24 hours for the 3 to occur in California. There was a 3.1 in Colorado City, AZ. This is on the mid line I keep talking about and is less than 200 miles from the California border. That is pretty close. I still think it is going west. So, I'll wait the next 24 hours to see if it happens. Otherwise, I got time and size and missed place by less than 200 miles.

World Forecast

A 7 changes everything, we'll maybe not. I believe the hypothesis will hold. So, let's watch for an outbreak of aftershocks. Some will be 5's maybe a 6. Especially a six if the world number does not creep back up. I'd watch the 850 mile radius around Okinawa, Japan for increase activity. Also, after the activity increase there, we will see more activity inland in China and the middle east. That's what is coming in the next two weeks. But, this QuakeCastToday is just a 72 hour forecast. So, for now watch out Asia.

California Forecast

Southern California will see a three in the next 24 hours. I also forecast a 3+ for the San Francisco area in the next 24 hours. But, just to be clear the 3 in Colorado City, Az is 518 miles from San Francisco. When I pick a city, the region surrounding the city on a world wide scale is 850 miles. This is too big for California. My range right now for California is 300 miles.

No comments:

Post a Comment

About this blog / Disclaimer

This blog follows the predictions of earthquakes in California and around the world from my god-mother, Randi.

Randi has never taken a geology class. She has no formal training. But, everyday for the last six years she has observed earthquakes around the world. She has watched when they happen and where they happen. She believes that there are patterns to when large earthquakes occur. She uses these patterns to predict future quakes.

She uses only one source of information for her predictions: USGS.

Randi makes her predictions based on the data from the USGS website and her insight gained from observing world-wide earthquake activity. As a challenge, she tries to make predictions in 72 hour increments. Just like a weather forecast, she misses many times, as well as gets some earthquake forecasts correct.

Randi's main concern is California. She will discuss earthquake activity on the world level, but she will do her best to narrow down the activity to specific dates for California.

This blog is for fun. It is NOT scientific. Randi does not recommend anyone to take any specific action because of her predictions.

A note from Randi on how she predicts them:

I’ve kept my analysis real simple. Today there are 344 in California/Nevada, a low number but the world number is 270. To me that means California WILL NOT have a large earthquake today. If the number goes below 200 for the world and California/Nevada is less than 500 then I believe the BIG quake will occur there.

Earlier this week, I got nervous because the world number was 218 and California was below 500, but another quake happened elsewhere before the total number went below 200 and the aftershocks raised the total world number to 270. It is fascinating to watch because the big quakes happen when the world goes below 200...