Quakecast

10 January, 2012

World: 188

Calif: 397

Predictor Performance in last 24 hours: Medium. I was too ambitious

with location on one prediction.

World Reality

The 5 aftershocks happened but not enough to drive the world number up.

I predicted 5's for aftershocks in:

Luzon, Philippines - In the first 24 hours the 5 happened in Papua, Indonesia, 2,000 miles away. Wait another 48 hours. I should have quakecast further south in 24 hours.
North of Santiago, South America for aftershocks- There was a 5.1 in Valparaiso, Chile. This is 67 miles from Santiago. Quakecast score for place, time and magnitude!
Mexico will also get a 4+ and maybe a 5. - There was a 4.1 in Chiapas, Mexico! Quakecast score for place, time and magnitude!

California Reality

As predicted there were no 7's or 6's in the previous 24 hours. My concern for Bakersfield is on target. While there were no 3's or 4's in California, there were more 2's in the first 24 hour period. Several by Coso Junction, CA. This is 75 miles from Bakersfield where I am concerned the 3 or 4 will happen in the next 48 hours. It is getting active in that region.

World Forecast

This is a 72 hour quakecast. Watch for the 5 and possible 6 by any area that experience a 5 in the last week. The world number remains low. Areas of particular concern include but are not limited to:

Luzon, Philippines
Chile
Kashmir
Sinaloa, Mexico ( This may be 4 days out. I have to watch South America to see if they come up the coast)

California Forecast

No 7's or 6's in the next 24 hours. Lot's more two's. The highest quake for California in the next 24 hours will be a 3.5.

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About this blog / Disclaimer

This blog follows the predictions of earthquakes in California and around the world from my god-mother, Randi.

Randi has never taken a geology class. She has no formal training. But, everyday for the last six years she has observed earthquakes around the world. She has watched when they happen and where they happen. She believes that there are patterns to when large earthquakes occur. She uses these patterns to predict future quakes.

She uses only one source of information for her predictions: USGS.

Randi makes her predictions based on the data from the USGS website and her insight gained from observing world-wide earthquake activity. As a challenge, she tries to make predictions in 72 hour increments. Just like a weather forecast, she misses many times, as well as gets some earthquake forecasts correct.

Randi's main concern is California. She will discuss earthquake activity on the world level, but she will do her best to narrow down the activity to specific dates for California.

This blog is for fun. It is NOT scientific. Randi does not recommend anyone to take any specific action because of her predictions.

A note from Randi on how she predicts them:

I’ve kept my analysis real simple. Today there are 344 in California/Nevada, a low number but the world number is 270. To me that means California WILL NOT have a large earthquake today. If the number goes below 200 for the world and California/Nevada is less than 500 then I believe the BIG quake will occur there.

Earlier this week, I got nervous because the world number was 218 and California was below 500, but another quake happened elsewhere before the total number went below 200 and the aftershocks raised the total world number to 270. It is fascinating to watch because the big quakes happen when the world goes below 200...