Quakecast

09 January, 2012

World: 196

Calif: 382

Predictor Performance in last 24 hours: High.

World Reality

As predicted there was a 6.6 in the Santa Cruz Islands, by the Solomon Islands. I said there was an increased risk of a 6+ near a previous 5 over the weekend! The world number is less than 206 and the 6.6 occurred 485 miles from a previous 5 the day before! They hypothesis holds true... again!

This prediction holds for time, size and place.

California Reality

As predicted there were no 7's this weekend in California. I predicted a 3+ near the Tejon Pass. There was a 3.5, 174 miles away in Coachella, CA. This is in the 250 mile radius for accuracy in California.

World Forecast

Hopefully, the 6.6 will drive a lot of 5 aftershocks to the world number over 206. I don't think I've ever seen the world number stay so low for so long. The risk of a 6 is still high. Watch out Luzon, Philippines. There will be 5 aftershocks and maybe the 6. Also watch north of Santiago, South America for aftershocks. Mexico will also get a 4+ and maybe a 5. I do not think the 6 will be there, but with the number so low it might.

California Forecast

No 7's or 6's in the next 24 hours. Watch Bakersfield for a 3+ and maybe a 4. We are seeing more 3's and this increases the risk of more three and 4's. If they happen, they will occur within 150 miles of a previous 2.

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About this blog / Disclaimer

This blog follows the predictions of earthquakes in California and around the world from my god-mother, Randi.

Randi has never taken a geology class. She has no formal training. But, everyday for the last six years she has observed earthquakes around the world. She has watched when they happen and where they happen. She believes that there are patterns to when large earthquakes occur. She uses these patterns to predict future quakes.

She uses only one source of information for her predictions: USGS.

Randi makes her predictions based on the data from the USGS website and her insight gained from observing world-wide earthquake activity. As a challenge, she tries to make predictions in 72 hour increments. Just like a weather forecast, she misses many times, as well as gets some earthquake forecasts correct.

Randi's main concern is California. She will discuss earthquake activity on the world level, but she will do her best to narrow down the activity to specific dates for California.

This blog is for fun. It is NOT scientific. Randi does not recommend anyone to take any specific action because of her predictions.

A note from Randi on how she predicts them:

I’ve kept my analysis real simple. Today there are 344 in California/Nevada, a low number but the world number is 270. To me that means California WILL NOT have a large earthquake today. If the number goes below 200 for the world and California/Nevada is less than 500 then I believe the BIG quake will occur there.

Earlier this week, I got nervous because the world number was 218 and California was below 500, but another quake happened elsewhere before the total number went below 200 and the aftershocks raised the total world number to 270. It is fascinating to watch because the big quakes happen when the world goes below 200...