Quakecast

06 January, 2012

World: 194

Calif: 390

Predictor Performance in last 24 hours: High for the world. Medium for

CA.

World Reality

Predicted a 5+ north of Chile and there was a 5.0 88 miles north of Chile.
Predicted a 4+ in Mexico and there was a 4.3 in Baja Calif. Sur, Mexico
Predicted a 4+ in China there was a 4.3 in Myitkyina, Myanmar India. But this is only 97 miles from China! I need to put maps on the website. Because country borders are not a good description.

Overall, I got time, size and place for all three areas!

California Reality

As predicted there was not a 7 in the 24 hours. There were more threes. Like one in Santa Barbara. This is 54 miles from where I said to watch for the possible 4. I still have 24 hours for the 4. But, this quakecast is correct for place and time. I missed size.

World Forecast

The world number is going up from aftershocks. It is still in the dangerous position of lower than 206. Therefore anyplace that has had a five in the last week may have the 6+ over the weekend.

California Forecast

Watch the Tejon Pass for a 3+ quake. Maybe a 4 over the weekend. No 7's this weekend.

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About this blog / Disclaimer

This blog follows the predictions of earthquakes in California and around the world from my god-mother, Randi.

Randi has never taken a geology class. She has no formal training. But, everyday for the last six years she has observed earthquakes around the world. She has watched when they happen and where they happen. She believes that there are patterns to when large earthquakes occur. She uses these patterns to predict future quakes.

She uses only one source of information for her predictions: USGS.

Randi makes her predictions based on the data from the USGS website and her insight gained from observing world-wide earthquake activity. As a challenge, she tries to make predictions in 72 hour increments. Just like a weather forecast, she misses many times, as well as gets some earthquake forecasts correct.

Randi's main concern is California. She will discuss earthquake activity on the world level, but she will do her best to narrow down the activity to specific dates for California.

This blog is for fun. It is NOT scientific. Randi does not recommend anyone to take any specific action because of her predictions.

A note from Randi on how she predicts them:

I’ve kept my analysis real simple. Today there are 344 in California/Nevada, a low number but the world number is 270. To me that means California WILL NOT have a large earthquake today. If the number goes below 200 for the world and California/Nevada is less than 500 then I believe the BIG quake will occur there.

Earlier this week, I got nervous because the world number was 218 and California was below 500, but another quake happened elsewhere before the total number went below 200 and the aftershocks raised the total world number to 270. It is fascinating to watch because the big quakes happen when the world goes below 200...