Quakecast

05 March, 2012

World: 228

Calif: 404

Predictor Performance in last 24 hours:

World Reality

Over the weekend there was an exception to the rule. There was a 6+ and the world number was high. There was also a 6.1 in Argentina today. It is the first time in years that the quakes happened when the world number was high…. I will need to see how often this exception happens.

California Reality

There was a 4.0 outside of San Fran an hour ago. Notice the CA number came down as well as the world number. We had the 4+ last week in the two critical places, Baja and Petrolia. I said that will increase activity in CA and it did. It took until the CA number dropped below 450 to happen.

World Forecast

The world number is 228. We will see 5’s and smaller until the number decreases to the 210 range.

California Forecast

California is in range for a bigger quake. Please watch for a 5+, this includes the possibility of a 6+ in the next 72 hours. The chances are higher than typical because we’ve had the 4+ in the two key areas, Baja and Petrolia last week. It can happen within 250 miles of a previous 3+.

No comments:

Post a Comment

About this blog / Disclaimer

This blog follows the predictions of earthquakes in California and around the world from my god-mother, Randi.

Randi has never taken a geology class. She has no formal training. But, everyday for the last six years she has observed earthquakes around the world. She has watched when they happen and where they happen. She believes that there are patterns to when large earthquakes occur. She uses these patterns to predict future quakes.

She uses only one source of information for her predictions: USGS.

Randi makes her predictions based on the data from the USGS website and her insight gained from observing world-wide earthquake activity. As a challenge, she tries to make predictions in 72 hour increments. Just like a weather forecast, she misses many times, as well as gets some earthquake forecasts correct.

Randi's main concern is California. She will discuss earthquake activity on the world level, but she will do her best to narrow down the activity to specific dates for California.

This blog is for fun. It is NOT scientific. Randi does not recommend anyone to take any specific action because of her predictions.

A note from Randi on how she predicts them:

I’ve kept my analysis real simple. Today there are 344 in California/Nevada, a low number but the world number is 270. To me that means California WILL NOT have a large earthquake today. If the number goes below 200 for the world and California/Nevada is less than 500 then I believe the BIG quake will occur there.

Earlier this week, I got nervous because the world number was 218 and California was below 500, but another quake happened elsewhere before the total number went below 200 and the aftershocks raised the total world number to 270. It is fascinating to watch because the big quakes happen when the world goes below 200...